After a thrilling fortnight of tennis at the ATP Madrid Open, just two men are still in contention for the title at the Caja Magica. Both have played some excellent tennis to reach the title match and both will no doubt be desperate to get their hands on the trophy. But will it be Andrey Rublev or Felix Auger-Aliassime who comes out on top?
ATP Madrid Final Prediction
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev
Head-to-head: Rublev 4-1 Auger-Aliassime
Rublev arrived at the ATP Madrid Open after a disappointing start to the clay-court season that he had seen him lose early in Monte Carlo, where he was defending champion, and in Barcelona. But he has looked rejuvenated in Madrid. He opened his campaign with a 6-1 6-4 win over Facundo Bagnis which he backed up by getting the Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a tight two-set battle to reach the fourth round. There he beat Tallon Griekspoor 6-2 6-4.
In the quarterfinals he recorded his best win in recent memory, beating second seed and home hope Carlos Alcaraz in a three-set thriller, 4-6 6-3 6-2. Rublev then dispatched 12th seed Taylor Fritz in short order, 6-4 6-3, to reach the final at the ATP Madrid Open. He will surely feel confident when he steps out on court to take on Auger-Aliassime.
The Canadian has played some fine tennis himself this last week, not least in beating fifth seed Casper Ruud in the round of 16. But he has also benefitted from walkovers or retirements against Jakub Mensik in the second round, top seed Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals and Jir Lehecka in the last four. He has also lost four of his five meetings with Rublev – his sole win coming on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam two years ago.
The conditions in Madrid are rather different, and Rublev has also since avenged that lone defeat by beating Auger-Aliassime in Rotterdam earlier this year. His consistent power and accuracy proved to be the difference that day and should ensure he emerges victorious once again. At his very best, Auger-Aliassime could win this match, but he has not shown that yet in Madrid, and Rublev is playing well enough to punish the Canadian’s weaknesses.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
