All the men’s fourth-round matches will be played on Tuesday at the ATP Madrid Open. As always, we here at LWOT will offer our predictions for all eight matches on the slate for day seven, including Rafael Nadal vs Jiri Lehecka and Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov. But who will advance to the quarterfinals?
ATP Madrid Day 7 Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Tallon Griekspoor
Head-to-Head: Rublev 2-0 Griekspoor
These two played on hard and grass courts last year where Rublev came out on top in the deciding sets. Andrey Rublev hasn’t been playing at his best recently but straight-set wins in his first two matches will surely give him much-needed confidence. Rublev has never won three consecutive matches in Madrid. Tallon Griekspoor played an excellent match against Holger Rune to book his place in the fourth round. He was dictating the play behind his serves, winning 81% of his first serves and didn’t give Rune much to look at, in terms of breaks. Both players will fancy their chances in this match but my money is on Griekspoor to win a closely fought battle.
Prediction: Griekspoor in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik
Head-to-Head: Medvedev 5-0 Bublik
Both these players have won their matches from a set down in their two matches here at the Madrid Open. Daniil Medvedev’s serve has looked good in this tournament so far and he needed that during the clutch moments against Korda. It’s visible that Medvedev has improved on clay and the results are proof of that.
Alexander Bublik has previously expressed his aversion to playing morning matches, and he started slowly against Ben Shelton before improving substantially as the match progressed. Bublik has lost all of his previous six matches against Medvedev, winning only one set. Seeing the head-to-head and the fact that this match is scheduled first in the morning, I like Medvedev to reach his first quarterfinal in Madrid.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Hubert Hurkacz vs Taylor Fritz
Head-to-Head: Hurkacz 1-2 Fritz
So far, both players have looked good against their two opponents and won quite comfortably. The faster conditions in Madrid suit their games more than other clay court events. Hubert Hurkacz has the bigger first serve and slightly better movement, and Taylor Fritz has the smarter 2nd serve (for Madrid conditions) and the better return of serve. Hurkacz was broken three times in his last match which will encourage Fritz. This is a close match to call and will probably be decided by who can serve better consistently and bring more firepower from the baseline, and in this department, Fritz has the advantage so far in this tournament.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz 2-1 Struff
Carlos Alcaraz has shown no mercy to his opponents so far at the Madrid Open but faces a tough task ahead in Jan-Lennard Struff who has troubled him in the past. Alcaraz was a bit sloppy to lose his serve in the 2nd set against Thiago Seyboth Wild, but apart from that he played a flawless match. Jan-Lennard Struff is playing the best tennis of his life as he seeks revenge for last year’s finals defeat.
The attacking tennis of Struff which starts from his big serve is heavily complimented in the Madrid conditions. Struff has won at least a set each time he has faced Alcaraz and he can surely do that again but I don’t see more than that from him. This is the biggest test of Alcaraz so far and I think he will come prepared.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
