ATP Madrid 1/16-Finals
Medvedev – Korda: 29.04.2024 12:30 CEST
H2H: 2-2
Daniil Medvedev has won three of his last five matches. This is the part of the season that he hates the most, the clay court season. Daniil sta ted this himself a couple of times already.Two weeks ago in Monte Carlo, Medvedev lost against Khachanov in the 1/8-Finals in straight sets. Here in Madrid, Medvedev was struggling in the second round against the young Italian, Matteo Arnaldi. In the end, Medvedev still won in three sets, but it was not his best performance. Last season in Madrid, Medvedev reached the 1/8-Finals where he lost against Karatsev in straight sets.
Sebastian Korda has lost three of his last five matches. This season, he has an even 2-2 record on the clay. Last week, Korda played in Bucharest, where he lost against Barrere in straight sets. It was one of his worst matches that he has played this season. However, here in Madrid, Korda dominated against Purcell in the 1/32-Finals. The American is now aiming to secure consecutive wins on clay for the first time since the French Open in 2022.
Best Bet to Make
Both players are playing on their least favorite surface. According to the bookies, Medvedev will be the favorite in this matchup. However, we believe that this will be a very unpredictable and tough match for both players. Looking at their head-to-head matches, Korda won two times in straight sets against Medvedev. On the other hand, Medvedev also won two times, but both times in tough three sets.
That being said, Korda covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Korda +3.5 games @1.73 @bet365
Cobolli – Khachanov: 29.04.2024 19:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Flavio Cobolli has lost three of his last five matches. Here in Madrid, Cobolli has won both of his matches in three tough sets. In the first round, Cobolli defeated Tabilo after spending 2 hours on the court. Just two days later, Cobolli had another great win against Jarry in three hard-fought again. He has spent almost five hours on the court already. These were his biggest wins this season on the clay.
Karen Khachanov won his first match in Madrid against Bautista-Agut in three sets as we predicted. Two weeks earlier, Khachanov reached the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo, where he lost against Tsitsipas in straight sets. Last year, Khachanov reached the quarterfinals in Madrid, where he lost against Carlos Alcaraz, who ended up winning the tournament. This season, Khachanov won the title in Doha earlier this year. This remains his best result of the season thus far.
Best Bet to Make
We believe that Cobolli will be tired tomorrow against Khachanov. He had two long matches on the clay, and now he will play against the in-form Khachanov. Karen has had some great wins on the clay this season already, and being so experienced playing on the big stage, we believe that Khachanov will be a better player tomorrow.
That being said, Khachanov winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Khachanov to win 2-0 @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
