ATP Madrid 1/16-Finals
Bublik – Shelton: 29.04.2024 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Alexander Bublik has lost three of his last five matches. Being seeded in Madrid, Bublik did not have to play in the first round. In the second round, Bublik came back against Carballes Baena and won the match in three sets. He showed us yet again why he is one of the most unpredictable players on the tour. In the first set, Bublik did not look interested in playing the match and won only one game. After that, Bublik stepped up his level, and absolutely destroyed Baena in the second and third sets. Last year in Madrid, Bublik lost in the second round against Rune in three sets.
Ben Shelton won 5 straight matches. Earlier this month, Shelton won at Houston against Tiafoe in the final. In his opening match this season in Madrid, Shelton lost only two games against Machac. His serve and forehand were working perfectly. Earlier in his career, Shelton did not have much success on the clay. However, this surface in Madrid is almost as fast as the one in Houston, so he is well adapted and ready. After winning the title in Houston, Shelton had 3 weeks to get ready for Madrid. We believe that he is well rested and ready for another big result.
Best Bet to Make
Alexander Bublik stated a couple of times that he does not love to play on the clay. Ben Shelton is playing his best tennis at the moment, and we believe that he is currently a way better player than Bublik.
That being said, Shelton winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Shelton to win 2-0 @2.00 @bet365
Mensik – Auger-Aliassime: 29.04.2024 15:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Jakub Mensik has two solid wins so far in Madrid. He has won three of his last five matches. Mensik is only 18 years old and is already one of the biggest next gen talents. In the second round of the ATP Masters 1000 in Madrid, Mensik secured his 20th win of the season by upsetting Grigor Dimitrov. Earlier this season, Mensik played the final in Doha after defeating both Andy Murray and Gael Monfils. In his match against Dimitrov, Mensik served 16 aces and played absolutely aggressive from the very start. He had 30 winners with 38 unforced errors, which is great.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has won four of his last five matches. Last week, Aliassime reached the quarterfinals in Munich where he lost against Struff in straight sets. Here in Madrid, Auger had a very tough first match against Nishioka. He ended up winning in three sets after being on the court for over 2 hours. Yesterday, Auger won easily against Mannarino in straight sets. Other than that, Auger has not had any remarkable results on the clay this season so far.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this one should be a 50-50 match. With Mensik showcasing his great talent in his first two matches in Madrid, we believe that he should be a favorite in this match.
Therefore, Mensik winning the match is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Mensik winning @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
