ATP Madrid 1/16-Finals
Nadal – Cachin: 29.04 2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Rafael Nadal had an amazing performance against de Minaur in the first round. Once again, Rafa showed us why he is the best clay court player of all time. He stayed cool under pressure, and won all the important points. The five-time Madrid champion lost to de Minaur last week in Barcelona. However, Nadal was forcing de Minaur to make unforced errors that he does not do normally. He looked healthy and ready on the court. It was still far away from his best days, but if he could stay healthy, we believe that Nadal just needs a couple of competitive matches to get back to his best form.
Pedro Cachin lost his last 8 matches before the ATP Masters 1000 in Madrid. However, he looked sharp in his opening matches here in Madrid. In the first round, Cachin won in straight sets against Ofner. Today, Cachin spent almost three hours on the court against Tiafoe. Cachin won in three hard-fought sets. Those two wins were also his first wins of this season. He had some injury problems earlier this year, and also lost a lot of three set matches. Now that he has won consecutive matches, he has probably gained much needed confidence.
Best Bet to Make
We believe that Cachin will be tired after he spent so much time in an exhausting match against Tiafoe. Nadal had a decent win against de Minaur, and we believe that he will continue winning this week. Even though he is not at his 100%, Nadal is still a way better clay court player than Cachin.
That being said, Nadal winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nadal to win 2-0 @1.67 @bet365
Rublev – Davidovich Fokina: 28.04.2024
H2H: 3-0
Andrey Rublev is struggling a lot with his emotions on the court. That was also the main problem why he lost so many matches lately. Before his second round win against Bagnis, here in Madrid, Rublev lost four straight matches. Rublev was very dominant in his first match in Madrid. Bagnis just did not have an answer for his game. Andrey had 24 winners with just 10 unforced errors, which is amazing. We believe that he gained his self-confidence back after such a win.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has lost three of his last five matches. He was really inconsistent throughout this season. He had a big battle in the second round against Shang. Fokina won in straight sets, but it was not the nicest win. He lost his serve three times, and his ground strokes were not that consistent. Juncheng Shang did not have any remarkable success on the clay, so we could say that Fokina got lucky with the draw.
Best Bet to Make
We believe that even though Rublev is not in his best form, that he is still a solid clay court player. Davidovich Fokina is playing at this moment, not good enough to compete with Rublev.
That being said, Rublev winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Andrey Rublev to win 2-0 @2.25 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
