ATP Madrid 1/16-Finals
Seyboth Wild – Alcaraz: 28.04.2024 16:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Thiago Seyboth Wild has won three of his last five matches. He has had two great wins so far in Madrid. In the first round, Seyboth won against Safiullin in straight sets. After that, Seyboth faced Musetti in the second round. Once again, Seyboth Wild won 6-4. He has done a great job this season so far at the Masters level. He entered as a qualifier in both Indian Wells and Miami. Seyboth reached the third round at both tournaments without dropping a single set. He tends to play well on the big stage. Last year, Seyboth stunned Medvedev in the first round of the French Open.
Carlos Alcaraz is returning from a month-long injury. His first match looked promising. The former world number 1 won against Shevchenko 6-2 6-1. Alcaraz loves to play here in Madrid. He clinched the title here in the last two editions, in 2022 and 2023 as well. The only guy that has ever won against him in Madrid is Rafael Nadal. However, Alcaraz is yet to win the title on the clay this season.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Seyboth Wild is a huge underdog in this matchup. While we still believe that Alcaraz will win this match, we also believe that Seyboth will give him big trouble.
That being said, Seyboth Wild covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Seyboth Wild +5.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Shapovalov – Zverev: 28.04.2024 21:30 CEST
H2H: 3-5
Denis Shapovalov did not have much success on the clay courts throughout his career. He loves to play fast and aggressive tennis, so that is the main reason why he had his biggest results on the fast hard courts. However, this clay surface in Madrid is fast. Shapovalov won his first two matches against the Argentinians. In the first round, Shapovalov won in three sets against Diaz Acosta. After that, Shapovalov won against Etcheverry in straight sets.
Last year in Madrid, Shapovalov lost his first match against Zhang in three sets.
Alexander Zverev had an easy first match in Madrid. He won in easy straight sets against Coric. Zverev served well, and was hitting his ground strokes cleanly. Last week, Zverev was the first seed in Munich. He disappointed his fans by losing against Garin in the quarterfinals. Last year, Zverev lost in the 1/8-Finals of ATP Masters 1000 Madrid against Alcaraz. Here in Madrid, Zverev is the 4th seed and also one of the biggest favorites to win the tournament.
Best Bet to Make
Last time and also the only time Zverev and Shapovalov have played against each other on the clay was in 2019 in Madrid. Zverev won that match easily in straight sets. However, they were at the beginning of their careers, so we can not expect the same outcome tomorrow. Both players are great servers and big hitters. We believe that we will watch an interesting match with many games played.
That being said, over 21.5 games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 21.5 games @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
