ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions Including Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur

Rafael Nadal ahead of the 2024 Olympics.

The hottest ticket yet at the ATP Madrid Open will involve the match between five-time champion Rafael Nadal and World #11 Alex de Minaur at Manolo Santana Stadium. It’s a rematch from a week ago in Barcelona, where de Minaur became the first Australian man to defeat the legendary Spaniard on clay. Will lightning strike twice, or will Nadal avenge that loss? We also predict the rest of the day’s matches, in addition to this article. We split the rest of the matches between three other articles, featuring Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Arnaldi, Casper Ruud vs Miomir Kecmanovic, and Jannik Sinner vs Lorenzo Sonego.

ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Adrian Mannarino

Head-to-head: Mannarino 1-0 Auger-Aliassime

Mannarino’s purple period might be over. With his 36th birthday coming up in a couple of months, it will be highly unlikely that he will defy biology and summon that high-level tennis he displayed in the second half of last season on a consistent basis. It’s now one win in six for the French lefty. Auger-Aliassime, meanwhile, has repaired his confidence. He was a quarterfinalist in Munich, losing only to eventual champion Struff. He got his Madrid campaign off to a great start with a strong comeback against Nishioka. It will be the Canadian who will have the ball on a string here and will dictate the outcome.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 2

Alexander Bublik vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Head-to-head: Bublik 1-0 Carballes Baena

It’s strange to think that Bublik‘s win over Carballes Baena in their only previous meeting was on clay in Marrakech. But that was seven years ago, before the Kazakh came to terms that he was allergic to the dirt. Carballes Baena has since won two ATP titles on the surface. Based on his consistency in clay court matches, he’s been a mainstay in the Top 100. Expect the 31-year-old Spaniard to turn the tables when they meet again on Saturday.
Prediction: Carballes Baena in 2

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Nicolas Jarry vs Flavio Cobolli

Head-to-head: Jarry 1-1 Cobolli

Flavio Cobolli showed why last week’s defeat to Nadal in Barcelona was not an indicator of his level on this surface. He’s bounced back superbly by taking down one Chilean in Alejandro Tabilo. Jarry will be expected to pose a much sterner test. However, Cobolli won their last encounter at this year’s Australian Open in five sets. And with world #23 in the midst of a mini-crisis (lost three in a row), an upset could be on the cards.
Prediction: Cobolli in 3

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Alex de Minaur vs Rafael Nadal

Head-to-head: Nadal 3-2 de Minaur

The only few times Rafael Nadal has been considered an underdog in a clay-court match was because of his health. And it’s the same scenario here as the one that unfolded in Barcelona a week ago. He was competitive for a set but soon faded as de Minaur outmuscled the legend with his excellent court coverage. Nadal has downplayed his crushing straight-sets win over Darwin Blanch in the first round by admitting that his opponent missed a lot. He also said that he would decide whether he would play Roland Garros at the end of the Italian Open. The fact that Nadal will wait until the 11th hour to confirm his participation in a tournament that has shaped his career evokes serious concerns. He is playing through the pain barrier again. You would expect the fleet-footed de Minaur to take advantage but expect Nadal to run him close.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports


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