ATP Madrid 1/64-Finals
Michelsen – Fonseca: 25.04.2024 17:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Alex Michelsen has lost four of his last five matches. The 19-year-old American still needs some time to adapt to this kind of level. Last week, Michelsen lost in the 1/8-Finals of the ATP BMW Open against Garin in three sets. Michelsen has only 5 wins on the clay court in his career. This year, Michelsen has played only four matches on the clay, and lost three of them. The only win came last week in Munich. Michelsen won against Rehberg, who is ranked 474, in two tough sets.
Joao Fonseca is one of the biggest Brazilian talents right now. The 17-year-old has won three of his last five matches. Last week, Fonseca lost against Tabilo in the quarterfinal at ATP Bucharest. He played a great tournament and gained some more self-confidence. Before that, Fonseca played a challenger tournament in Madrid where he reached the quarterfinals as well. After he won the Boys US Open last year, Fonseca started playing at the professional level. His huge forehand will get him a lot of wins if he stays this consistent.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fonseca is just a slight favorite in this matchup. We believe that the facts speak for themselves. Michelsen won only once this season on the clay, and this is also his least favorite surface. Fonseca is one of the best young clay court players, and we believe that he will win easily today.
That being said, Fonseca winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Fonseca winning @1.53 @bet365
Nadal – Blanch: 25.04.2024 17:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Rafael Nadal is starting his retirement journey. He confirmed that this would be his last participation in his home Masters event. Earlier this week, Nadal confirmed that he is still not at 100%, but he is just happy to play in Madrid for one last time. Last week in Barcelona, Nadal played his first clay court tournament after almost two years. He won in the first match against Cobolli in straight sets. After that, the king of the clay lost against de Minaur in straight sets and failed to reach the quarterfinals.
Darwin Blanch is a 16-year-old who is outside the top 1000. He only played a couple of pro level matches. However, he got the wildcard here earlier this season in Miami as well. Blanch lost against Machac in straight sets, but won 6 games in that match and got the crowd on his side. We believe that the future is bright for this youngster.
Best Bet to Make
Darwin Blanch has nothing to lose today. He must embrace this once in a lifetime opportunity. We believe that he will play without any pressure, and will just try to enjoy the moment. As you could have expected, Nadal is a huge favorite in this match. However, the over games line is set really low at just 16.5 games. We believe that Blanch will be able to win a couple of games against Nadal, and cover this line easily.
That being said, over 16.5 games in the match is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 16.5 games @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
