ATP Madrid qualifications
Goffin – Bagnis: 22.04.2024 10:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
David Goffin has lost three straight matches. His last win was in Marrakech at the beginning of April, where he won against Rinderknech in straight sets. The last match he played was last week in Bucharest. Goffin lost in three sets against Kecmanovic. He played 6 matches on the clay courts, and has an even 3-3 record. All wins came against opponents who are either lower ranked or out of the form. Goffin is on the verge of getting out of the top 100. He needs to start winning if he wants to stay up there. Goffin has not had any remarkable success this season so far.
Facundo Bagnis has won three of his last five matches. He played almost all of his matches on the clay courts. Last month at the Santiago challenge, Bagnis reached the final where he lost against Varillas in straight sets. Earlier this year, Bagnis also played in the ATP Córdoba final. He lost there against Darderi, also in straight sets. At the beginning of the year, Bagnis won his first challenger title of this season in Buenos Aires. He is a great clay court player, and we believe that he will start winning again. Bagnis lost his last match in Barcelona, last week against Hardt. It was his first match after he was out for almost a month, so he was still a little bit rusty.
Best Bet to Make
Overall, we believe that Bagnis is a better clay court player than Goffin. According to the bookies, Bagnis is the underdog in this matchup. We do not agree with that, he has won a lot of matches this season on the clay. He had more than enough time to prepare for this qualification tournament, and we believe that he will win easily tomorrow.
That being said, Bagnis to win is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bagnis winning @2.25 @bet365
Lestienne – Nava: 22.04.2024 17:30 CEST
H2H: 2-0
Constant Lestienne has won three of his last five matches. He had to retire mid-match in Phoenix last month. Since then, Lestienne have not played any matches. However, we saw his training in Madrid, and are sure that he is ready. This will be his first clay court tournament of the season. The last clay court match he played was last year at the French Open, where he almost upset Karen Khachanov. The last clay court match he won was in 2022.
Emiliano Nava played his first clay court tournament of the season last week in Oeiras. He lost his second round match against Blanchet in straight sets. Being an American, Nava did not play matches on the clay throughout his career. However, Nava had some of his biggest results just on this surface. Last season, Nava ended his clay court season by winning a challenger title in Modena.
Best Bet to Make
Lestienne looked ready in Madrid. However, competitive matches are something else. He has not won a clay court match for almost 2 years now. Nava had some solid results on the clay, and we believe that he is currently in a better form as well.
That being said, Nava winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nava winning @1.54 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
