ATP Monte Carlo 1/16-Finals Best Bets
Alcaraz – Auger-Aliassime: 10.04.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 2-3
Carlos Alcaraz had a great last month! He won the title at Indian Wells, beating Sinner and Medvedev! After that, Alcaraz lost in the quarterfinal against Dimitrov. Last time he played on the clay court was in February when he retired mid-match against Monteiro in Rio de Janeiro. Before that tournament, Alcaraz lost against Jarry in Buenos Aires. This season on the clay courts, Alcaraz has an even 2-2 record.
Auger-Aliassime had some wins and some losses this season. He has not been consistent at all. He won three out of the last five matches. Auger was not seeded here, so he had to play in the first round. He won against Nardi in straight sets. Auger did not offer any breakpoints and had a great performance overall! He had 21 winners with only 9 unforced errors. If he could repeat this performance, Auger might have a decent chance against Alcaraz!
Prediction
Alcaraz is obviously a better clay court player than both of them. He is a huge favorite according to the bookies. However, he did not do anything this season on the clay! Auger had a great first round match and that gave him confidence! We believe that Auger-Aliassime will handicap games easily!
Value bet/ the best odds: Auger-Aliassime +4.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Khachanov – Cerundolo: 10.04.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 3-0
Karen Khachanov is in solid form. He won three out of the last five matches. Yesterday, Khachanov played his first clay court match this season. He won against Norrie in straight sets. Khachanov lost his serve twice in the first set, but managed to break Norrie’s serve three times. It was a poor performance from both players in the first set. In the second set, Khachanov came back after being 3-5 down. He also saved 2 set points in the second set. It was overall a poor performance from both players.
Francisco Cerundolo has already played a lot of clay court matches this season. He has an even record (4-4) this season on the clay court. Cerundolo won here in the first round against Altmaier in straight sets. He played great in the first set. After that, in the second set, Cerundolo made 14 unforced errors and was on the verge of losing the second set. It was not his best match. He was not consistent, but he managed to win in the end! Clay court is his favorite surface, and we expect him to do well against Khachanov
Prediction
Both players won their first round matches in straight sets. However, they were both not consistent! We expect a tight match between them. Khachanov is a great server and poor returner, so do not wonder if you watch at least one tiebreak! As we already mentioned, we expect a tight match with many games played! That being said, over 22.5 games is a value bet!
Value bet/ the best odds: over 22.5 games @1.83 @bet365
Remember to bet responsibly. Know your limit and play within it.
Main Photo Credit: Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
