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ATP Miami Final Prediction – Jannik Sinner vs Grigor Dimitrov

Jannik Sinner in action at the ATP Miami Open.

After an entertaining fortnight at the ATP Miami Open, just two players are still in contention for the title. Both have played some excellent tennis so far in the Sunshine State and both will no doubt be desperate to get their hands on the title. But will it be Grigor Dimitrov or Jannik Sinner who comes out on top in Miami?

ATP Miami Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner vs Grigor Dimitrov

Head-to-head: Sinner 2-1 Dimitrov

Sinner has made some start to 2024. The Italian has been beaten just once so far this season, losing in the semifinals in Indian Wells to Carlos Alcaraz, and will be aiming for his 24th win when he steps on to court to take on Dimitrov. That run has seen him win two titles, including the Australian Open, and he has impressed once again at the ATP Miami Open. He opened his campaign with a 6-3 6-4 win over Andrea Vavassori, before rallying past Tallon Griekspoor. 5-7 7-5 6-1.

That set up a third-round clash with Australia’s Christopher O’Connell which Sinner won comfortably, 6-4 6-3, and he beat Tomas Machac in similarly comprehensive fashion to reach the semifinals. Waiting for him was third seed Daniil Medvedev and a close contest looked to be in the offing. But the Russian couldn’t hold a candle to Sinner, as the Italian romped to a 6-1 6-2 to reach his third final of the season.

Dimitrov, meanwhile, may not have made quite such an electric start to the year, but the Bulgarian has been playing very well. He won his first title since 2017 in Brisbane and also reached the final in Marseille and the last four in Rotterdam. That said, his level this week has still been something of a surprise. He had to dig deep to beat Alejandro Tabilo in his opener, but then brushed Yannick Hanfmann aside for the loss of just one game.

Dimitrov then beat Hubert Hurkacz in a thriller, prevailing in a deciding-set tiebreak, to reach the quarterfinals. There, delivering surely his best performance in recent memory, he beat world #2 Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets to earn a semifinal berth and a shot at Alexander Zverev. He had lost seven matches on the bounce against the German with his sole win coming a decade ago in Basel. But he made light of that, holding his nerve to record an excellent 6-4 6-7 6-4 win.

Unsurprisingly, given his efforts so far this season, Sinner will be the heavy favourite heading into this match. Dimitrov has managed to spring more than a few surprises so far at the ATP Miami Open, but this looks likely to be a challenge too far for the Bulgarian. The head-to-head also favours Sinner, who beat Dimitrov twice last year, including in straight sets in Miami. Dimitrov might be able to win a set, but it would be a real surprise were he to beat Sinner here.

Prediction: Sinner in 2

Main photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports


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