Quarterfinal action at the BNP Paribas Open gets underway on Thursday as the ATP’s heavyweights start to see the finish line. Four of the best last-eight matches are on schedule, and none is bigger than Carlos Alcaraz’s clash with Alexander Zverev. Who will reach the semifinals at ATP Indian Wells?
ATP Indian Wells Quarterfinal Predictions
Jannik Sinner vs Jiri Lehecka
Head-to-head: Sinner 1-0 Lehecka
Jannik Sinner is making a case for being the world’s best player in his current form. He leads the ATP race and is undefeated in 2024. The Italian has not dropped a set at ATP Indian Wells and was a class above Ben Shelton, who competed bravely for a set before wilting. Jiri Lehcka has already knocked out a Top 10 player (Andrey Rublev) to reach his third and biggest quarterfinal of the season, but right now, a matchup against the new Australian Open champion is the ultimate test. It is unlikely the Czech will match Sinner’s hyper-aggressive tennis.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-head: Ruud 4-1 Paul
The challenging part about being a tennis player is that there is no magic formula to arrest a rankings slide. You simply have to pull up your socks and perform. Casper Ruud has done that commendably. There were absurd murmurs that his best days were well past him. We seem to be far from that. At 25, it feels like he hasn’t even tapped into his peak years. The Norwegian’s renaissance in recent weeks sets him up for a potential title charge this week. A gutsy win over Gael Monfils was just what the doctor ordered. Ruud came through that one in three sets.
Tommy Paul ended the fairytale run of Italian lucky loser Luca Nardi in straight sets last round. Both Paul and Ruud are in terrific form. February was a productive month in which they headlined two ATP finals each, with the American being the happier man for winning in Dallas. There is very little to separate these two in terms of ability, and the margins are even thinner than a razor in the formbook. Three sets are probably the most viable outcome, and it is anyone’s guess who will come out on top.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune
Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-1 Rune
Daniil Medvedev advanced into his 18th Masters 1000 quarterfinal with a hard-fought 6-4 6-4 win over Grigor Dimitrov (one of the standout performers this season). The Bulgarian was not at his free-flowing best, but Medvedev raised his level and shaded the critical points in the match, converting three of six break points.
Holger Rune saved a match point to beat 2022 Indian Wells champion Taylor Fritz in three sets on Wednesday night. The Dane continues to impress under the guidance of Patrick Mouratoglou, whom he rehired as coach last month. He is now chasing a second straight semifinal spot at ATP Indian Wells.
This will be the pair’s first meeting on hard courts, having split their two bouts on clay. Going gung-ho against the world No. 4 is unlikely to yield any dividends as he soaks up pressure very well. Rune’s best bet is to try and unsettle Medvedev with a mix of drop shots while making full use of the width of the court. Still, that may not be enough, as Dimitrov learned the hard way. The edge is very much with last year’s finalist.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head: Zverev 5-3 Alcaraz
Is the sun setting on Carlos Alcaraz’s reign as defending Indian Wells champion? His form in recent months was cause for concern. Alcaraz opened up about his struggles and how his confidence took a hit from a title drought that now enters its eighth month. Because he has set such high standards for himself, the scrutiny is always immense.
Zverev has been a thorn Alcaraz’s game. He has a winning record over the Spaniard and has won their last two meetings quite convincingly. However, the world No. 2 enters Thursday’s clash in high spirits and with newfound confidence. He has steered his season back on track, playing some superb tennis. Now that his wings have grown again, it doesn’t look like Zverev will stop him from flying. The German’s last two defeats have come against players ranked outside the Top 30. Additionally, he looked shaky in his three-set win over an in-form de Minaur. With that said, expect Alcaraz to saunter into the semifinal.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
