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ATP Acapulco Semifinal Predictions Including Holger Rune vs Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud in action ahead of the ATP Los Cabos Open.

The semifinals are on deck in Acapulco, with plenty of power on display. Alex de Minaur will stand out as the likely favorite of the remaining players to try and repeat as champion. He faces a tough opponent in Jack Draper, who has been excellent and spent the least time on the court this week of any of the four semifinalists. Holger Rune is the top seed remaining and is looking for his first title in almost a full year. Casper Ruud is the last semifinalist and is just two matches away from capturing that elusive first title above the ATP 250 level. It will be an exciting finish to a great ATP Acapulco event to wrap up the Mexico swing. Who do you think will advance to the final?

ATP Acapulco Semifinal Predictions

Alex de Minaur vs Jack Draper

Head-to-head: 2-0 de Minaur

Draper has been excellent this week at ATP Acapulco, losing just 11 games in his three matches so far. He relies on his big serve to control matches and has yet to face a break this week. Unfortunately, he has to face off against probably his worst matchup of the remaining semifinalists in Alex de Minaur. Though de Minaur has won both of their prior meetings, each was close, with their most recent meeting in Tokyo last year decided by a third-set tiebreak. De Minaur is the defending champion in Acapulco and has also looked strong this year. The Australian won his first two matches convincingly, then came back from a set down to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinal.

The match will be a clash of styles, with Draper yet to be broken, while de Minaur has secured an incredible 15 breaks in his three matches. The biggest advantage de Minaur has will be fitness, with his speed and ability to play long points. Fitness has always been a weakness for Draper. Even during an evening match, the weather will be warm in Acapulco. This will be the difference with de Minaur forcing Draper to hit extra shots and make mistakes as well as tiring him out as the match gets longer. De Minaur will reach the final for the second straight year.

Prediction: de Minaur in 2

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Holger Rune vs Casper Ruud

Head-to-head: 5-1 Ruud

Ruud, somewhat surprisingly, has owned Rune in the past with an excellent 5-1 record with all of their matches played in the last three years. That record should be taken with a grain of salt, as all of their prior meetings came on clay. This matchup is interesting, with both players looking to improve on relatively recent poor form by each of their high standards. Rune will come into the match with some confidence after making a final earlier in the year. He has also reached the semis without dropping a set. However, his quarterfinal win over Koepfer was nervy, as Rune was broken at 5-4 in each set before winning in an eventual tiebreak. Ruud will have plenty of confidence as well after the final last week in Los Cabos and has not shown any signs of fatigue.

Ruud has the matchup advantage as an all-around consistent player that will force a player like Rune into costly mistakes. Rune has gathered plenty of match wins so far in 2024 but has struggled in each of his matches against top players. Ruud has been able to step up against stronger competition, and a warm, physical match plays in his favor with the fitness advantage. Rune has the skill to keep it close, but this one will swing in Ruud’s favor.

Prediction: Ruud in 3

Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports


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