We are down to the last eight at the Australian Open as the quarterfinals wrap up on Day 11 in Melbourne. Two blockbuster matchups are on the slate as No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev takes on No. 9 seed Hubert Hurkacz and No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz squares off against No. 6 seed Alexander Zverev. As always, we at LWOT have our roundtable preview and predictions for each match. Offering their thoughts on these two quarterfinal bouts are Shane Black, Jack Edward, Yesh Ginsburg, Damian Kust, and Jordan Reynolds.
View our women’s quarterfinal predictions, including Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya, here.
Australian Open Men’s Quarterfinal Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz
Head-to-Head: Medvedev 2-3 Hurkacz
Shane:
Hurkacz holds a very impressive 20-6 record since the 2023 US Open. The 26-year-old Pole has not had the toughest route to the quarterfinals, but his ability to hold serve and raise his level in tiebreaks is impressive. Medvedev will look to neutralize the big serve of Hurkacz by standing his typical eight feet behind the baseline on return. Hurkacz has won their last two meetings (in straights!), but I struggle to see him finding a way past what will be a fresh and motivated Medvedev.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Jack:
Hurkacz has come through a sneakily good draw and it’s all thanks to an unwaveringly powerful first serve—he’s won 84% of his first serve points this week, more than anybody else left in the draw. Even Medvedev has struggled with the Hurkacz serve in the past, having lost three of their five meetings. Regardless of how close it is though, on a hard court, over five sets, I think Medvedev’s resumé speaks for itself.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Yesh:
Daniil Medvedev has looked iffy at times this event, but the courts suit him and his game is just brutal for opponents. I don’t think Hurkacz quite has the capability to overpower him, which means the Russian should win as this draws out.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Damian:
Hurkacz leads the head-to-head 3-2 and easily could have taken their meeting in Canada too. It’s a quirky matchup with both players falling into the big server/counter-puncher mold, but of course executing it in very different manners. The flat backhand of the Pole can bother Medvedev and some of the forehand hitting against Arthur Cazaux was the absolute best he can muster. His serve can make any match close and this one likely will be no different.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 5
Jordan:
Hurkacz’s game is dangerous in any conditions and on any surface. But I feel the Rod Laver conditions will help Medvedev here. The 2021 US Open champion usually prefers faster hard courts, but the slow conditions on Rod Laver Arena should assist him more in this matchup. Expect Medvedev to get enough returns into play and grind Hurkacz down to reach the semifinal.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz 3-4 Zverev
Shane:
Zverev’s return to the top of the sport after his brutal ankle injury at the 2022 French Open has been impressive to watch. He has notched two wins in fifth-set tiebreakers this tournament, showing off his physical and mental fortitude. That said, the 13 hours and 47 minutes Zverev has spent on-court in Melbourne is over five hours more than Alcaraz. It is the young Spaniards’ first time in the Australian Open quarterfinals. He has reached at least the semis of the last four majors he has competed in. His myriad of weapons, paired with his ability to capitalize on any ball Zverev leaves short, will lead Alcaraz to victory.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Jack:
Having now made the quarterfinals of every Slam, Alcaraz is playing with confidence. He’s shown no signs that he’ll be anything but on his A-game. Zverev may have won their last match in Turin but the conditions should be a touch slower to stop the serve from dictating play. Playing close to his best, Alcaraz should get into his first Australian Open semifinal.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Yesh:
Alexander Zverev has not looked particularly dominant this tournament so far. That’s a problem, because it requires an elite level to deal with Carlos Alcaraz. Zverev doesn’t have that right now.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Damian:
Zverev got away with a very passive display against Cameron Norrie in the fourth round, but this is where he has to stop that. Anything less than confidence and a brave mindset will lead to him getting smashed off the court against Alcaraz, who was in phenomenal free-flowing aggression mode against Miomir Kecmanovic. Based on Zverev’s previous Slam performances and how he doesn’t trust the forehand too much in general, I don’t think he’ll pull this off.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Jordan:
Will Zverev have enough energy left in the tank? He said after his second long five set match of the tournament against Cameron Norrie that he is slightly tired, but not to the same level as last year’s US Open, when he faced Alcaraz after a brutal five-setter against Jannik Sinner. The German does have a game that could trouble Alcaraz if it is firing. However, it is difficult to see how any player can overcome Alcaraz unless they are stepping onto court at close to 100%.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
