10x Australian Open Champion Novak Djokovic has not lost a match in Melbourne since 2018. He has won 30 consecutive matches at the Australian Open, hoisting the singles crown the last four times he has played in Melbourne Park. However, the next generation of tennis superstars has arrived, making the path between Djokovic and the final Sunday of a slam a bit more arduous.
22-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner has announced himself as one of the best players in the world with his rise over the past couple of seasons. Sinner holds a career-high ranking of No. 4 in the world, has notched ten ATP titles, and has reached the quarterfinals of every slam. His time is now, and with what the young Italian has shown us over the past few months, he should be considered the current favorite to win the 2024 Australian Open.
Sinner’s end to the 2023 season
Sinner went on a three-month tear after a disappointing fourth-round exit at the US Open. The Italian posted a 20-3 record in the last three months of the season, winning titles in Beijing and Vienna and helping the Italian Davis Cup team to its second-ever championship. Over those three months, Sinner notched 13 wins over top 20 players, including two wins over Djokovic in back-to-back weeks.
The veteran Serbian had won the three previous matches he played against Sinner, but the Italian bested Djokovic 7-5, 6-7, 7-6 in the round-robin stage of the Nitto ATP Finals. Djokovic bounced back, putting together a flawless performance to down Sinner 6-3, 6-3, in the final in Turin. Sinner, however, exacted revenge six days later in the Davis Cup semifinals.
The 22-year-old paced his country’s victory over Serbia with a 6-2, 2-6, 7-5 semifinal win over Djokovic. Later that day, Sinner teamed up with Lorenzo Sonego to take down Djokovic and Miomir Kecmanovic in doubles to claim victory for Italy. Italy went on to top Australia in the Davis Cup final, led by Sinner’s 6-3, 6-0 demolition of Alex de Minaur.
Sinner in Melbourne
Sinner opted not to play a lead-up event ahead of the Australian Open for the first time in his career. That decision has seemingly had no negative consequences toward his game as the Italian has breezed through the tournament’s first three rounds.
The No. 4 seed drew former world No. 22 Botic van de Zandschulp in Round One. On paper, this looked like a match where Sinner could face some trouble if he did not bring his A-game. Van de Zandschulp reached the quarterfinals of the 2021 US Open and notched five top-15 wins in 2023. Sinner, however, had no trouble with the Dutchman, putting pressure on van de Zandschulp from the get-go. He tallied 26 winners in the 6-4, 7-5, 6-3 victory.
In Round Two, Sinner dropped just six games in his rout of Dutch Qualifier Jesper de Jong. The third round was more of the same as the Italian dispatched No. 26 seed Sebastian Baez 6-0, 6-1, 6-3 in one hour and 52 minutes.
Sinner is into the fourth round of the Australian Open for the third consecutive year and has reached at least the fourth round in eight of his last nine slam appearances. We have become accustomed to his consistency in the first week of Grand Slam play, however, his recent rise in level has me rethinking whether the public is appropriately discussing the Italian’s title chances.
The Italian looks to make history
The 22-year-old is looking to become the first Italian man to win a Grand Slam since Adriano Panatta at the 1976 French Open. After six days of play, I am ready to declare Sinner the current favorite to win the Australian Open. I feel this way for many reasons, namely the look of his draw and the performance of other contenders this week. Above all, what sticks out to me is the confidence and crispness Sinner has been playing with since September. He sees the success Carlos Alcaraz is having and believes those results should be his.
Speaking of Alcaraz, the Spaniard (+240) and Djokovic (+100) held the best odds to win the tournament ahead of Round 3 (via Vegas Insider). Sinner, at +500, is third on the men’s side.
Looking at the top contenders, it makes sense why Alcaraz and Djokovic hold public odds ahead of the Italian. The duo has combined to win nine of the last 11 slams, including all four last season. They have traded the No. 1 and No. 2 ranking spots over the past year and created their own tier of play on the ATP Tour in 2023.
That said, neither Alcaraz nor Djokovic has looked crisp in Melbourne.
Looking around Melbourne Park
The 20-year-old Spaniard gutted out a 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 second-round victory over Lorenzo Sonego. He faces a tricky opponent in Round 3 in the highly talented 18-year-old Juncheng Shang. It will be one of the first matches of Alcaraz’s career where he is considered the “veteran.” Should he get by Shang, another tricky battle against No. 14 seed Tommy Paul could be in the cards. Alcaraz has had some epic battles with the American, with the head-to-head currently split at two.
For Djokovic, the beginning of his Melbourne campaign has been anything but easy.
The 24x Slam Champion spent over four hours on-court in his first-round battle with 18-year-old Dino Prizmic. He followed that with a tough four-set win over Alexei Popyrin in Round 2. Djokovic has spent seven hours and 12 minutes on-court thus far in Melbourne Park. This is the most time he has spent on-court in his first two slam matches since the 2005 US Open. Yes, the 36-year-old has been praised for his fitness level and ability to adapt to anything, but wearing down at a slam is not out of the question for anyone, even Djokovic.
The Serb also has a relatively tough draw ahead of him. He squares off against No. 30 seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Round 3 before what is likely to be a US Open semifinal rematch against Ben Shelton. Should he get past the Argentine and young American, the winner of Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be waiting for him in the quarterfinals.
Sinner’s path to the title
Sinner draws No. 15 seed Karen Khachanov in the fourth round. The 2023 semifinalist has proven he thrives in Melbourne Park, but like many of the other top seeds, he has yet to bring his best tennis to the 2024 Australian Open. Beyond that, it would likely be a quarterfinal matchup against Andrey Rublev, Alex de Minaur, or Sebastian Korda. It’s a tough road, but one Sinner should like his chances against.
The following six days is likely to be all but window dressing ahead of a Djokovic vs. Sinner semifinal Friday night match inside Rod Laver Arena, a place where the 36-year-old has not lost in six years.
The Italian will go into that match as an underdog, acknowledging the greatness that Novak Djokovic has achieved in Melbourne Park. However, I believe these two weeks are where Jannik Sinner announces himself as more than a slam contender, raising the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Sunday as the third Italian man to win a Grand Slam singles title.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
