We wrap up the third round of the men’s singles on Day 3 of the Australian Open. Who will punch their tickets to the second week? Our writers share their thoughts on all eight of Saturday’s matches–split between this and a separate article. Predicting the Day 7 matches are Jordan Reynolds, Tope Oke, and Damian Kust. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 7 Men’s Predictions
Alexander Zverev vs Alex Michelsen
Jordan:
Zverev’s serve barely got him through the last round, with the rest of his game not being near its best. The extremely talented Michelsen has the ability to take advantage if that happens again. I feel the upset is on. The German is struggling to find his best tennis, and I think Michelsen could create enough chances in a tight match.
Prediction: Michelsen in 5
Tope:
Alex Michelsen is having the time of his life in his debut here in Australia but everything has an end. His defeat of Jiri Lehecka in the previous round was a bit of an upset but he surely cannot repeat it against one of the true elite players around. Or can he?
Prediction: Zverev in 4
Damian:
Even an in-form Zverev always takes a while to progress past the early rounds of a Slam, but surviving the peaking display from Lukas Klein was impressive. Alex Michelsen is an interesting matchup with a youngster who could be playing a bit of a Zverev-ish playstyle soon and made a big leap as he improved his serve of late. Seems like this will be a tough ask for the American though, mostly at the physical level.
Prediction: Zverev in 4
Tommy Paul vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Jordan:
Kecmanovic managed a dramatic victory against Jan-Lennard Struff in a final set tiebreak, but this is likely to be too great a challenge. Paul loves the conditions in Melbourne, and was strong against Jack Draper in the last round. I do not expect him to have too many problems against Kecmanovic on a hard court.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Tope:
These two have met thrice and all on hard courts with the Serbian having an edge in the head-to-head, including a second-round win here in 2022. Tommy Paul has simple played the better tennis here. He easily neutralized the more lethal Jack Draper in the previous round and there’s little reason why he shouldn’t take the Serbian out.
Prediction: Paul in 4
Damian:
Kecmanovic has been playing far above his usual standard recently and this third round is a nice reward for that, even if it required a couple of match-point saves against Jan-Lennard Struff. Tommy Paul is a semifinalist from last year though and simply a more powerful and athletic player off the ground. His upside tends to be much stronger.
Prediction: Paul in 4
Hubert Hurkacz vs Ugo Humbert
Jordan:
This is likely to come down to fine margins between two strong servers (especially Hurkacz) and with Humbert’s big forehand. My instinct is backing an upset for the Frenchman. Hurkacz’s level dipped quite a lot in his last round, which went to five sets. Those dips could be fatal against Humbert, who has looked in a good rhythm in his opening two contests and had a great 2023 season.
Prediction: Humbert in 4
Tope:
Hubert Hurkacz narrowly passed the Jakub Mensik test and it was down again to his serve. He only lost his serve twice in a pulsating 5 setter and he’ll be looking for the same against another tricky opponent. The Pole leads in their head-to-head and if he can hold his serve, he should make it three out of three.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 5
Damian:
Hurkacz survived the five-setter against Jakub Mensik mostly on physicality, but quality-wise the youngster was right up there with him. The Pole leads the head-to-head on Humbert 2-0, but their last match in Basel was extremely close and we probably shouldn’t be expecting anything else here. Is Hurkacz already above his Slam mental block that usually had him underperform in the longer format?
Prediction: Hurkacz in 5
Daniil Medvedev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Jordan:
The Canadian does not have a great record against Medvedev. But he will have a chance if the 2021 US Open champion starts like he did against Emil Ruusuvuori, where he dropped the opening two sets. Auger-Aliassime has a chance, but I still find it difficult not to back Medvedev. At his best, he has the perfect game to stifle Auger-Aliassime’s serve and forehand style, without much variety.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Tope:
Incredibly, this will be the seventh meeting between the players, and the Russian has won every single one of them including a quarterfinal match here in 2022. Remarkably, all the previous matches have been on hardcourts so there’s no reason not to back Medvedev to nick a 7th consecutive win
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Damian:
They met in a pretty fabulous quarterfinal here two years ago, but both feel like they’re playing a lot worse than back then right now. Medvedev didn’t choose to play a warm-up and was looking pretty rusty so far, while Auger-Aliassime is coming off a weird year with the Basel title and nothing else. Seems like in this matchup it’s mostly the Canadian who needs to be on point to win, Medvedev can run away with far less.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
