We’ll be treated to 20 men’s matches on Day 3 as the Australian Open wraps up its first round. As always, we here at LWOT share our thoughts on all the matches. We split the day’s 20 matches between five articles. In addition to this article, the other four feature Carlos Alcaraz vs Richard Gasquet, Holger Rune vs Yoshihito Nishioka, Alexander Zverev vs Dominik Koepfer, and Grigor Dimitrov vs Marton Fucsovics. Predicting these matches are Jack Edward, Jason Fernandes, and Jordan Reynolds.
Australian Open Day 3 Men’s Predictions
Alexander Bublik vs Sumit Nagal
Jack:
For all the entertainment and swagger, Alexander Bublik has generally put together enough big wins to justify his ranking on tour. He’s rarely been a player that performs at the Slams, however—qualifier Sumit Nagal could be warm enough to take advantage of any lapses in concentration.
Prediction: Nagal in 5
Jason:
The Indian did a great job to qualify, winning all his matches in straight sets, but Bublik is another level to anyone he played last week. As long as Bublik doesn’t implode, his serve and forehand should make easy work of his first round encounter.
Prediction: Bublik in 3
Jordan:
Bublik made a nice start to the season in Adelaide with a semifinal, but his level can fluctuate wildly from one week to the next. It makes his matches hard to predict, but he is still a big favourite against Nagal, who has just one Grand Slam main draw win to his name. That was at the US Open back in 2020.
Prediction: Bublik in 3
Mackenzie McDonald vs Juncheng Shang
Jack:
McDonald hasn’t been in great form with most of his recent wins coming against other players in similar slumps. Though McDonald scored a win against Shang in September, Shang’s semifinal run in Hong Kong showed just how far the Chinese could go up the rankings.
Prediction: Shang in 4
Jason:
The 18-year-old has had a great start to 2024 with a semifinal showing in Hong Kong losing in three sets to Rublev. He’s only going from strength to strength and despite being a wildcard here, he’s very well capable of beating the American ranked exactly 100 places ahead of him.
Prediction: Shang in 5
Jordan:
McDonald does not get the same attention as some other American players on the men’s and women’s side. However, he has developed into one of the steadiest and most solid players out there. He has a reliable level that he usually reaches. That level is very likely to be too good for Shang.
Prediction: McDonald in 4
Laslo Djere vs Arthur Cazaux
Jack:
Laslo Djere has won a single match in Melbourne throughout six appearances—there’s no way the conditions suit his game. Cazaux is coming off a great run in Noumea and will be keen to capitalise on a golden opportunity to get his first Grand Slam main draw win.
Prediction: Cazaux in 4
Jason:
It was only in the last Grand Slam that Djere was up two sets to love against compatriot Djokovic in New York, so his game is evident for all to see. 2024 hasn’t started well with a first round loss in Hong Kong while Cazaux is coming off a Challenger win. This will be close but Djere will end up being too solid for the Frenchman.
Prediction: Djere in 4
Jordan:
12 months ago I may have been more worried for Djere than I am. The Serbian has improved a lot on hard courts, and is no longer just a clay court specialist. Cazaux is still waiting for his first Grand Slam main draw victory. He is talented, but I do not think he will have enough to topple Djere.
Prediction: Djere in 4
Casper Ruud vs Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Jack:
For all of Ruud’s hardships last year, he played indisputably well to start the year at the United Cup. The last time Ramos-Vinolas won a match on a hard court against a top 50 player was two years ago with eight losses coming in that time. 2022’s US Open finalist should be fine here.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Jason:
Casper Ruud’s career is in a weird place after a disappointing 2023. However, the court speed here in Melbourne is slow favouring the Dane. It’s hard to see him contending with guys ranked above him these two weeks but against a clay specialist like the Spaniard there shouldn’t be a problem here.
Prediction: Ruud in 4
Jordan:
Expectations surrounding Ruud have quietened after he had some struggles in 2023. It is important to remember this is still a three-time Grand Slam runner-up and a man who was one win away from becoming world No. 1. Even some of his best level will be good enough against Ramos-Vinolas, who is both past his prime and most comfortable on clay.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
