We’ll be treated to 20 men’s matches on Day 3 as the Australian Open wraps up its first round. As always, we here at LWOT share our thoughts on all the matches. We split the day’s 20 matches between five articles. In addition to this article, the other four feature Carlos Alcaraz vs Richard Gasquet, Casper Ruud vs Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Alexander Zverev vs Dominik Koepfer, and Holger Rune vs Yoshihito Nishioka. Predicting these matches are Shane Black, Jason Fernandes, and Jordan Reynolds.
Australian Open Day 3 Men’s Predictions
Tommy Paul vs Gregoire Barrere
Shane:
Tommy Paul is looking to back up his run to the semifinals at this event last year. The American has developed a weapon of a serve that he pairs with his crazy athleticism and solid groundstrokes. Paul doesn’t come to Melbourne in the best of form, and Barrere has been known to pull off an upset. However, the American’s game is too consistent for the Frenchman to puncture.
Prediction: Paul in 4
Jason:
A year ago Paul made the semis here, it’s hard to see it happening again but it’s also hard to imagine him going home in the first round. The world #14 will have far too much for the Frenchman.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Jordan:
Paul nearly broke into the Top 10 last year after a season of extremely consistent tennis. Whether the American can take the next step remains to be seen. He was a semifinalist in Melbourne last year. Barrere will need to be aggressive and hope he hits the lines on several occasions. It feels like a big ask for the Frenchman, but I will back him to win a set.
Prediction: Paul in 4
Marcos Giron vs Jack Draper
Shane:
Draper is coming off a run to the Adelaide final. If he stays healthy, I would be surprised if the young Brit doesn’t break into the Top 30 this year. His serve will be a problem for Giron to deal with. The American has a chance if he is able to drag this match out, but ultimately, Draper has too many weapons for Giron to overcome.
Prediction: Draper in 4
Jason:
With Draper injury free and coming off a near miss in Adelaide losing a close final, it feels like we’re finally seeing his potential. Giron is a solid baseliner but without a real weapon the Brit should dominate and outhit the American.
Prediction: Draper in 4
Jordan:
Draper has looked very strong in the opening weeks of the season, and was the runner-up in Adelaide in to Tommy Paul. Yet, I am backing an upset here. The relatively fast courts in Melbourne suit Giron, and he will be comfortable redirecting the pace of his opponent with a flat trajectory. It will put an onus on Draper to be patient against a consistent baseliner like Giron, while also dealing with the pace of the court. Giron to take this in five sets.
Prediction: Giron in 5
Soon-woo Kwon vs Lukas Klein
Shane:
Kwon, coming off an injury, has not won a match since Feb 2023. Klein has already won six matches in 2024, including a win over Sebastian Baez. I struggle to see a scenario where Kwon is able to hold a high enough level to win three sets.
Prediction: Klein in 4
Jason:
With Klein coming off three wins in qualifying to make the main draw here and Kwon on an incredible seven match losing streak after a return from injury, it’s hard to see the South Korean winning this, especially being a best of five sets match. Right now, a set or two would be good for Kwon.
Prediction: Klein in 4
Jordan:
This is a tight one to call. Both players look evenly matched and this could be a real battle. It is a coin toss but I will give the edge to Klein in a fifth set, although a Kwon win will not be a surprise.
Prediction: Klein in 5
Grigor Dimitrov vs Marton Fucsovics
Shane:
Dimitrov has been one of the most in-form players on tour. Dating back to October, he is 15-3 with eight wins over Top 25 players. Fucsovics is a tough Round 1 draw, and when he is on his game, has the firepower to beat anyone. In this match, I believe Dimitrov has too many different ways to win points for the Hungarian to overcome.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 4
Jason:
The Bulgarian is coming off his first title since 2017 just a week or so ago and not only that, he’s also playing his best tennis since then. Add to that the Hungarian has only won back-to-back main tour matches twice since July last year, it’s hard to see anything even close to an upset happening here.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 4
Jordan:
Is this Dimitrov’s time? He won the title in Brisbane to start 2024, after having his best season since 2017 last year. This feels like the Bulgarian’s best chance of a very deep Grand Slam in years. Fucsovics can be dangerous, as he showed when he beat Sebastian Korda at the US Open last year. But I do not see him winning more than a set against Dimitrov.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 4
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
