The 2024 Slam season is officially upon us as the Australian Open begins on Sunday with 16 ATP singles matches and 16 WTA singles matches. We at LWOT have previews and predictions for every Australian Open match, led by Andrey Rublev vs Thiago Seyboth Wild in this article. Damian Kust, Jordan Reynolds, and Shane Black offer their insights and predictions.
Australian Open Day 1 Predictions
Taylor Fritz vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Damian: Fritz and his Slam performances is a bit of an ongoing story with some deep runs but also more early loses than is generally expected of him. The American gets a nice draw here, though, as while Diaz Acosta has shown some decent tennis on hard courts the past couple of months, his lefty grinding is incomparably less effective on a quicker surface than on clay. Fritz in 3
Jordan: On paper, this is the perfect opening round for Fritz. Díaz Acosta is a feisty competitor, but he is yet win a Grand Slam main draw match, and is a clay court specialist. He has also lost both his previous matches so far this season. Anything other than a comfortable Fritz win would be a surprise. He needs to drop his level a lot for that not to be the case. Fritz in 3
Shane: Fritz is still the No. 1 American, but his compatriots are on his heels. After falling at this event in the second round last year, Fritz should be hungry to make a deep run over the next two weeks. Diaz Acosta is coming off a career year and currently holds a career-high ranking of world No. 93, but most of his damage was done at the Challenger level in clay court events. Fritz should be able to serve and hit through the Argentine in this match. Fritz in 3
Cristian Garin vs Christopher O’Connell
Head-to-Head: Garin 2-0 O’Connell
Damian: Garin owns two head-to-head wins on hard courts over O’Connell, which probably isn’t the direction you would generally expect that head-to-head to go off-clay. The Chilean plays pretty flat for a dirt-baller, though, and is kinda serve/return focused as well. Is it enough to consider him the favorite here? Let’s say that edge is covered up by O’Connell’s Adelaide quarterfinal and better rhythm to start the season. O’Connell in 5
Jordan: O’Connell had the best season of his career last year, and had a solid run to the quarterfinal in Adelaide heading into the Australian Open. Garin has not played a match this season, and all six ATP finals he has reached have been on clay. Yet, I am backing the Chilean to pull off a slight upset. Garin has had surprise runs in the past, such as to the Wimbledon quarterfinal and Indian Wells fourth round. I also feel his big forehand cross court to O’Connell’s can cause the Australian trouble. Garin in 4
Shane: Garin bested O’Connell 7-6 6-4 last year in qualifying in Toronto. I expect another tightly contested match on Sunday. Garin, who is known as a clay-court player, actually posted a 20-12 record in hardcourt matches last season. O’Connell made a run to the Adelaide quarterfinals to start his 2024 campaign and will have strong crowd support in this match. However, Garin’s crispness off the baseline and his ability to get to the net will be the difference. Garin in 5
Tomas Machac vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Damian: Machac wasn’t fit in Auckland last week and this feels like it’s mostly a question of that. Before the loss to Bolt he was playing the tennis of his life and has done well in Melbourne in the past as well. At his best he’s definitely the better player here and loves a faster hard court too. But Mochizuki is pretty confident in himself at the moment as well and if the Czech won’t be able to attack him or give his best physically, it can get complicated quite quickly. Machac in 4
Jordan: Both players have been on similar trajectories in recent times. Strong ends to last season meant each man reached career high rankings towards the end of 2023. But Machac is still the better ranked player, with Mochizuki yet to break into the Top 100. The Czech’s overall game is more complete, and he is the favourite to progress. Machac in 4
Shane: Mochizuki is the luckiest loser of the year as he is the only (thus far) Lucky Loser in the men’s draw. The 20-year-old Japan native has a bright future in the sport and plays with supreme confidence. Machac won three matches in Brisbine to begin the year and had a solid hardcourt season in 2023. This should be a very back-and-forth match, but I give Machac the slight edge in a decider. Machac in 5
Andrey Rublev vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Damian: Seyboth Wild’s a bit of a mess on hard courts, although on paper that forehand should be extremely dangerous anywhere. Rublev is an opponent he probably has in his range if he’s playing at his absolute peak, but both the surface and the form don’t seem to suggest he will. The Russian’s very high B-level should be way more than enough here, although a set for the underdog doesn’t seem impossible. Rublev in 4
Jordan: Seyboth Wild had an incredible rise into the top 100 last year, which included a memorable win against Daniil Medvedev at the French Open. However, he is most comfortable by far on clay. It is difficult to see how he lives with the powerful groundstrokes of Rublev on a hard court, and the Russian also made a great start to the season by winning the title in Hong Kong. Rublev in 3
Shane: Rublev is 13-4 in his last four Australian Open’s. He has lost just one first round match in his last 15 Slam appearances. Rublev tends to dominate lesser opponents. Seyboth Wild has proven to be a tough test in Slams, knocking off Daniil Medvedev at the 2023 French Open. That said, the Brazilian is 2-9 since October 2023. I expect him to raise his level in this match, but it won’t be enough to trouble the No. 5 seed. Rublev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
