The schedule for the semifinals of the ATP Finals in Turin could not be more exciting. The top four players in the world are set to face off for a place in Sunday’s final. Home favourite Jannik Sinner will face Daniil Medvedev, while Novak Djokovic battles Carlos Alcaraz in a repeat of this year’s epic Wimbledon final. It promises to be one of the most exhilarating days of the 2023 season. But which two players do you think will reach the final?
ATP Finals Semifinal Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-head: Medvedev 6-2 Sinner
A few months ago, this was the most difficult matchup for Sinner on the ATP Tour. Those perceptions have been changed because of Sinner winning his last two meetings against Medvedev. Both those contests were last month and came in finals in Beijing and Vienna. Any mental block that existed has surely been erased.
Both men have reasons to feel confident before this ATP Finals clash. Sinner’s tennis in the group stage was sublime in front of his home fans. A first win against Novak Djokovic in one of the best matches of 2023 was the highlight as he topped the group with three consecutive wins. Medvedev did suffer a loss in his final group match against Carlos Alcaraz. However, the 2021 US Open champion has spoken about how comfortable he feels in the conditions, which do suit the Russian’s brand of tennis.
Overall, it is hard to go against Sinner right now. Medvedev’s victory against Carlos Alcaraz in this year’s US Open semifinals could help him somewhat. There was much talk in the media at the time of an Alcaraz vs Djokovic final, and the crowd was strongly on the Spaniard’s side, but Medvedev upset the odds with a sublime performance. A similar performance and mindset is needed to defeat the Italian in front of his home fans. Yet, Sinner’s terrific recent level, recent success against Medvedev, and the local crowd give him a slight edge at the ATP Finals. The Italian’s mental and physical endurance has also improved greatly, something that could be important in a potentially long match.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz
Head-to-head: Djokovic 2-2 Alcaraz
Every previous match between the current world No. 1 and No. 2 has produced incredible drama. A final set tiebreak win for Alcaraz in Madrid, two incredible sets at the French Open before the Spaniard began cramping, one of the best Grand Slam finals of all time at Wimbledon in favour of Alcaraz, and most recently, one of the greatest Masters finals in Cincinnati that Djokovic edged. What will come next in the fifth installment at the ATP Finals?
It is a bold prediction, but this one might buck the trend of the previous contests. Indoor courts are the only conditions where I feel Djokovic is a favourite, whereas it is too close to call on all surfaces outdoors. To be clear, this is not ruling out Alcaraz’s chances. The two-time Grand Slam champion is capable of playing excellent tennis on indoor courts, as he showed against Medvedev in his last ATP Finals match. But they are still the conditions that Alcaraz most regularly produces inconsistent performances, while Djokovic’s level on indoor courts has only grown throughout his career.
In addition, the medium speed of Turin’s indoor hard court suits Djokovic slightly more. A slow court would allow Alcaraz to wind up his heavy groundstrokes, while a fast court allows him to use his superb net game to his advantage. A medium-speed indoor hard court gives the 24-time Grand Slam champion the best opportunity to counter all of Alcaraz’s many strengths effectively.
I hope these two once again play one of the best matches of 2023, but this time Djokovic may have a slightly clearer edge at the ATP Finals.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran – USA TODAY Sports