The ATP Finals is a unique event on the calendar as the only individual event with pool play determining who advances to later rounds. This allows players to advance and even win the event after losing a match, but it will also cause confusion with multiple permutations where one player’s fate can depend on the result of another match. Below we outline all of the results that can happen tomorrow and which players will advance in first and second place in the group for each result.
Green Group
With Stefanos Tsitsipas withdrawing from the event and Hubert Hurkacz only filling in for one match, only three players from the group are able to qualify for the semifinal round. Jannik Sinner controls his own destiny in the group after winning his first two matches, but his spot is not yet guaranteed and both Holger Rune and Novak Djokovic will be fighting for their place as well.
Djokovic and Sinner win
In the most likely scenario based on seeding, if Djokovic and Sinner both win their matches they will each advance to the semifinal round. Sinner would win the group with a perfect 3-0 record with Djokovic taking second. Rune would fall to 1-2 and miss out on the semifinal.
Hurkacz and Rune win
In the opposite scenario from above, Rune and Sinner would each advance, which may be intriguing considering that Sinner will know the result of the earlier match when they take the court. Here, Djokovic would fall to 1-2 and Sinner and Rune would each finish with a 2-1 record. Since the first tiebreak is head-to-head result, Rune would finish first in the group and Sinner second.
Hurkacz and Sinner win
In this scenario Sinner wins the group with a perfect 3-0 record. Djokovic and Rune would both fall to 1-2, where Djokovic’s win over Rune in the first match of the event would be the difference and he would advance as the second semifinalist. Number of matches played is the first qualifying requirement, so even though Hurkacz would have a perfect 1-0 record in the event and a win over Djokovic, Djokovic would still advance to the next round.
Djokovic and Rune win
This would be the trickiest scenario that will go deep into tiebreakers as all three players would finish pool play with a 2-1 record, with rotating losses against each other so no head-to-head tiebreak can be used. Win percentage of sets in all matches would be the tiebreaker, and for any two or three players still tied the tiebreak would go to game win percentage. Rune also won his match against Stefanos Tsitsipas via retirement before he won a set. Per the standings on the ATP Tour website, he is credited with a 2-0 win so these results are assuming that is used. Below are the four sets scenarios assuming these match results:
Djokovic in 2, Rune in 2: Rune wins the group, Djokovic finishes second and advances
Djokovic in 3, Rune in 2: Rune wins the group, Sinner finishes second and advances
Djokovic in 3, Rune in 3: Djokovic eliminated, Sinner and Rune both advance but tied on sets, Rune wins the group based on his head-to-head win over Sinner
Djokovic in 2, Rune in 3: Most chaotic scenario where all three players would finish with a 5-3 sets record and game win percentage would be the tiebreak. This is nearly impossible to forecast but based on their current records, Djokovic would likely win the group with Sinner finishing second, though that is very dependent on how close each match turns out. If two players here happen to be tied, their head-to-head result would determine the finishing position between the two. If somehow all players finished with an identical games record, Djokovic and Sinner would advance with the final tiebreaker being the player’s ATP ranking coming into the event.
Group Overview
Sinner controls his own destiny, guaranteeing a spot in the semis with a win over Rune. Sinner will also advance with a three set loss or a straight set loss and a Hurkacz win. Djokovic and Rune are both sitting at 1-1 and their fates will both depend heavily on how the other match goes. If one of them wins and the other doesn’t, that player will advance. Djokovic has a slight edge as he will advance if both players lose, and if they each win they will have to try and do so convincingly to get the tiebreak, with most of the scenarios favoring Rune.
Red Group
While there are plenty of possibilities in this group of the group winner, Daniil Medvedev has assured his place in the semifinal after winning his first two matches in straight sets. His countryman Andrey Rublev has been eliminated (assuming no player withdraws due to injury) due to losing both of his matches in straight sets and not having a scenario where the tiebreaker will be in his favor. Both Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz have a shot at winning the group as well as missing out on the semifinals all together.
Rublev and Alcaraz win
This is one of the two straightforward scenarios. In this case, both Medvedev and Alcaraz would advance to the semifinal with a 2-1 record, while Zverev and Rublev would finish 1-2. Alcaraz would win the group with his head-to-head victory over Medvedev.
Zverev and Medvedev win
These results would yield the easiest standings with no tiebreakers required. Here Medvedev would win the group at 3-0, Zverev would finish runner-up at 2-1, and Alcaraz and Rublev would miss out on the semifinals with records of 1-2 and 0-3 respectively.
Rublev and Medvedev win
The final two possibilities are where it gets more complicated with each case having three players finishing with the same record. First, Medvedev would win the group with a 3-0 record. The other three players would all be tied at 1-2 with wins over each other and a mutual loss to Medvedev. The tiebreaker would first go to set win percentage. However, since Alcaraz won in straights and lost in three but Zverev won in three and lost in straights, regardless of the set results in these upcoming matches, Alcaraz will advance as group-runner up. Zverev therefore must win to have a chance at advancing to the semifinal round.
Zverev and Alcaraz win
Similar to above, this would end in another three-way tie and go to the percentage of sets won tiebreak. In this case, Rublev would be the odd man out and the other three would be tied with a 2-1 match record. However, due to the same set scenario mentioned above, an Alcaraz win would knock Zverev out of the semifinal regardless of his set result against Rublev. For group winner, if Alcaraz wins in two sets, he will win the group; if he wins in 3, Medvedev will win the group with Alcaraz as runner-up.
Group Overview
Medvedev is in the driver;s seat, winning the group with a win or a three set loss coupled with a Zverev win. Alcaraz is also guaranteed to advance with a win and will win the group with a straight set win or three set win and Zverev loss. Zverev has the toughest road but can still qualify, with his only chance a win alongside a Medvedev win over Alcaraz.
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
