A blockbuster final awaits at the ATP Vienna Open. 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev plays this year’s Toronto Masters champion Jannik Sinner. It is a repeat of the Beijing Open final a few weeks ago, which Sinner won in straight sets. Can Medvedev get his revenge? We at LWOT provide our prediction and analysis for the final in this article. But which player do you think will triumph in Vienna?
ATP Vienna Final Prediction
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head: Medvedev 6-1 Sinner
Sinner’s level has been very impressive throughout the week. His route to the final included matches against Ben Shelton, Francis Tiafoe and Andrey Rublev. Yet the Italian No.1 has not dropped a set in any of his contests so far. Medvedev’s path to the final does include two sets being lost. Those occurred against Karen Khachanov and Grigor Dimitrov. But Medvedev was very impressive against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinal. His Greek opponent’s level was high throughout the match but Medvedev still managed to win in straight sets to advance to the ATP Vienna Open final.
The overall head-to-head is lopsided in favour of Medvedev. However, Sinner’s win in the Beijing final just a few weeks ago is a huge psychological boost for the 22-year-old. This matchup has usually favoured Medvedev due to the relative lack of variety in Sinner’s game. It meant Medvedev could play consistent tennis and wait for his younger opponent to be drawn into unforced errors. Sinner did a better job of using variation in Beijing and that made a big difference.
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Nonetheless, Medvedev gets a very slight edge in the ATP Vienna final. The Beijing final was still a very close contest that was decided by two tiebreaks, and the overall head-to-head still demonstrates how tough a matchup this is for Sinner. Also, the Vienna courts are slightly slower than the fast conditions in Beijing. The quicker courts in China allowed Sinner to come to the net effectively and exploit Medvedev’s deep return position. The courts at the ATP Vienna Open are medium speed, which is the type Medvedev likes most. It makes them slow enough to make serving and volleying less effective, but just about quick enough to avoid his groundstrokes sitting up invitingly to be hit.
Sinner is not to be ruled out and his powerful hitting is capable of beating anyone when he finds his range. However, Medvedev is still a small favourite to win the ATP Vienna Open.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
