While the ATP Basel draw lacks some of the star power of the Vienna event, there are several great storylines in play observing the semifinal matchups. Holger Rune is the top seed though he has been playing like anything but coming into the event. He has not looked convincing with his wins but has progressed to the semifinal hoping he can get a signature win that gets his form back on track. His opponent Felix Auger-Aliassime is in a similar boat, having a truly terrible second half where he has struggled to win a match throughout the season. Both players are seeing their rankings start to drop and will hope to seize the opportunity to reach the final here and score a strong result. Unlike Rune and Auger-Aliassime, #4 seed Hubert Hurkacz has been playing excellent tennis highlighted by his Shanghai title and is establishing himself as an elite hard court player especially on faster surfaces. Ugo Humbert is the last semifinalist and a bit under the radar, though he has been fairly inconsistent on hard courts, he is looking for a big upset win and the potential to add an ATP title to his two Challenger titles on the year.
ATP Basel Semifinal Predictions
Hubert Hurkacz vs Ugo Humbert
Head-to-head: 1-0 Hurkacz
Hurkacz is looking like the clear remaining favorite to win the title. He has been truly excellent on fast courts highlighted by his Shanghai title and has played well in Basel. Their lone meeting came on a grass court where Hurkacz won in straights showing his comfort on fast courts. Humbert plays his best on slower clay courts so it is impressive that he has reached the semifinal here. It has not been easy but he has grinded through his three matches to get here, spending 6:15 on court versus 4:52 for Hurkacz. Humbert can rally well from the baseline but will struggle to keep up with the pace on Hurkacz shots, especially if he serves well. Hurkacz is in good form and the matchup is heavily in his favor, so as long as he continues relying on his huge serve, he will cruise to a win.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 2
Holger Rune vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Head-to-head: 2-1 Rune
This is a rematch of last year’s final won by Auger-Aliassime before each of their fortunes turned. Rune enjoyed a good start to 2023 but has been poor since the summer. Auger-Aliassime has never gotten it together all year and has seen his ranking drop to #19 after being just out side of the Top 5 last fall. While he grinded out a quarterfinal comeback win that should encourage him, he did have to win two tiebreaks in a long match against qualifier Alexander Shevchenko. Auger-Aliassime was also outplayed statistically and attempted to call for the physio late in the match. Rune was also fortunate to barely beat Tomas Martin Etecheverry in a close three setter that ended in an 8-6 tiebreak. That match will help Rune a bit more as Etcheverry is a hard-hitter from the baseline similar to the power Auger-Aliassime brings. Neither player has produced much confidence as potentially winning the title, but they are fortunate they face off for a chance in the final. Rune has looked a bit sharper both this week and the last few months and on top of potential fatigue or injury for Auger-Aliassime will give him the edge to win.
Prediction: Rune in 3
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
