It has been a week of upsets so far at the ATP Tokyo Open. All the seeds have been knocked out and a great opportunity exists for two of the remaining players to reach an ATP 500 final. US Open semifinalist Ben Shelton is the highest-ranked player left in the draw. As always, we at LWOT provide our predictions and analysis for both semifinals in Tokyo. But which players do you think will progress to the final?
ATP Tokyo Semifinal Predictions
Shintato Mochizuki vs Aslan Karatsev
Head-to-head: first meeting
Mochizuki’s run to the semifinal is a contender for the most surprising of the season. The Japanese player was ranked outside the Top 200 heading into the tournament, but that will change regardless of how he fares in this match. Karatsev can be inconsistent at times but his game has clicked during the Asian swing. He reached the semifinal at the Zhuhai Championships and has now done at the same at the ATP Tokyo Open.
Mochizuki will need to absorb a lot of pressure to have a chance of winning. Karatsev is undoubtedly the bigger hitter of the two players, while Mochizuki relies more on consistency and his athleticism. However, the home favourite proved how well he can do that in his stunning upset of #1 seed Taylor Fritz in the round-of-16. He will also have the benefit of a passionate Japanese crowd seeking to roar him into the final. Can Mochizuki pull off another upset? It certainly cannot be ruled out after the special run he has had. It will also be interesting to observe how Karatsev manages the partisan crowd. Yet the Russian gets a slight edge to progress to the ATP Tokyo Open final. Mochizuki’s matches in the last two days were very long and physical, which may help Karatsev get over the line.
Prediction: Karatsev in 3
[cta id=445 type=cta]
Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron
Head-to-head: Giron 1-0 Shelton
Giron won the only previous meeting between the two Americans earlier this year at the Delray Beach Open. Yet it is clear how much Shelton has developed in the eight months that have passed since. Shelton is known for his huge serve and forehand, and the fast conditions at the ATP Tokyo Open suit that style. However, it is the increased patience of the 21-year-old that has stood out so far in this tournament. He is picking the right moments to use his firepower and not attempting to hit shots that even someone of his immense talent will struggle to make.
Shelton is the favourite, but do not rule out Giron. He is so solid from the baseline and his younger compatriot will undoubtedly be made to work hard to win those exchanges. In addition, Giron neutralized Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinal, whose style is not dissimilar to Shelton’s. Overall though, Shelton is likely to progress to the final.
Giron’s gritty style may have been a worrying prospect a few months ago. But the US Open semifinalist’s recent increased rally tolerance will assist him greatly here. Also, he is currently implementing his serve and forehand far better than the struggling Auger-Aliassime. Giron will not be able to get into Shelton’s service games on the fast Tokyo courts if he hits his spots. Expect the in-form Shelton to do that regularly at the ATP Tokyo Open.
Prediction: Shelton in 2
Main photo credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
