The fireworks at ATP Tokyo enter its fourth Day with four matches in the fourth round draw. Some quite interesting matches are lined up, top of which is that intriguing tie between the resilient Alex De Minaur and the rejuvenated Diego Schwartzman. We at LWOT join the party to pick out who we think will make it into the quarterfinals.
ATP Tokyo Day 4 Predictions
Zhizen Zhang vs. Aslan Karatsev
Head–to–Head: Zhang 1 – 1 Karatsev
Zhizhen Zhang was third-time lucky in his recent match against the big-serving Hubert Hurkacz with a brilliant comeback win over the Pole in the first round. He needed yet another tiebreak to overcome Hurkacz, and he held his nerve to win in three sets. He’s now 11-11 on hardcourts this year, and he’ll be looking to make it a positive record.
Aslan Karatsev can defeat any player if he is in the groove, and he demonstrated his prowess in the straight-sets defeat of Frances Tiafoe in the first round. Though he has a slightly better record on this surface, he lost to Zhang in the first round at Astana last year.
Their head-to-head is one apiece, and even though the Russian is the better player, Zhang appears to be more consistent as he’s lost just once in 10 matches. I’ll back him to come out with a win.
Prediction: Zhang in 3
Cristian Garin vs. Alexei Popyrin
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Alexei Popyrin ended his 4-match winless run with a dominant straight-sets win over 7th seed Karen Khachanov in the first round. It certainly should trigger a turnaround for the Australian, who had not won a match since Cincinnati in August. He was outside the top 100 this time last year, but he’s crawled up to being a top 50 player, and a win here would mark his 4th quarterfinal of the year at this level.
Cristian Garin struggled past home boy Sho Shimabukoro in the first round in three sets. It is his third win in a row at ATP Tokyo after ousting Australians Philip Sekulic and Rinky Hijikata in the qualifiers. Despite being primarily a clay courter, he has a decent record on hardcourts this year, and he’ll feel he can give this a shot.
Popyrin is the more experienced player on this surface, and the outcome of this match depends on what version of him steps on court.
Prediction: Alexei Popyrin in 3
Taylor Fritz vs. Shintaro Mochizuki
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
It has been very rare for Taylor Fritz to lose consecutive matches this year, and he amplified it with a strong win over Cameron Norrie in the first round after his shock loss to Diego Schwartzman in Shanghai. The American number 1 has had a very respectable season, especially on hard courts. He made it to at least the quarterfinals of every event, including the US Open, and won the title in Atlanta.
Shintaro Shimabukoro achieved his maiden victory in the main draw of tour-level events, and it was right in front of his home fans at ATP Tokyo. It was his first success in nine attempts, and he looked visibly emotional after the win over Tomas Martin Etchverry
Shimabukoro is the last Japanese remaining in the draw, and it looks like he’s gone his farthest. Taylor Fritz is the defending champion here, and he should have no problem blitzing past the young Japanese in his quest to retain the title.
Prediction: Fritz in 2
Alex De Minaur vs. Diego Schwartzman
Head–to–Head: De Minaur 1 – 0 Schwartzman
David Schwartzman is enjoying some sort of renaissance after a very strong showing in Shanghai last week. He delivered impressive wins over the likes of Jiri Lehecka and Taylor Fritz before losing to Nicolas Jarry in a close match. His first-round match here in Tokyo was even more reassuring after he destroyed his compatriot Francisco Cerundolo in straight sets, almost enjoying a bagel. It looks like he’s regained his confidence now, and he’ll be a real challenge going forward.
Alex De Minaur showed incredible resilience in his first-round win over Jack Draper, bouncing back from a first-set loss to clinch the win with two tie-breakers. He has replicated the game all season staying in the match with his incredible shot-making from the baseline. Tokyo hasn’t been a particularly good hunting ground for him, though, as he’s only managed to progress beyond the first round only once in three attempts.
This is going to go the distance. Schwartzman is enjoying his tennis now and poses a real threat. He had a commanding win in the previous round, and he’ll take this match to the Australian. De Minaur isn’t known for his great serves, and I think the Argentine will be able to take advantage of that to grind out a win.
Prediction: Schwartzman in 3
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin Oncea – USA TODAY Sports
