It promises to be an entertaining third day at the ATP Tokyo Open with five matches on the slate in the Japanese capital. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate, but who will advance?
ATP Tokyo Day 3 Predictions
Zhang Zhizen vs Hubert Hurkacz
Head-to-head: Hurkacz 2-0 Zhang
Zhang Zhizhen was on an eight-match winning streak before being upended by Hubert Huckarz in the quarterfinal stage in Shanghai, having become the first Chinese to win gold at the Asian Games in almost three decades in what has been a fantastic season. However, despite his impressive year, he still has a negative 10-11 record on hard courts
Hurkacz’s service game in Shanghai literally propelled him to the title. In fact, the only player who broke his serve more than twice in any match was none other than Zhang. The giant 6 feet 5 Pole now stands just outside the top 10 and within touching distance of the year-end finals.
Both matches between the pair have been very close and this promises to be another lengthy match with Hurkacz perhaps still recovering from his exploits in Shanghai. Zhang will be out to get over the line but he must find a way to repel Hurkacz’s serve. That is easier said than done.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 3
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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Sebastian Ofner
Head-to-head: first meeting
Felix Auger-Aliassime managed to secure just his sixth victory in 21 matches after he defeated Alexander Vukic in three sets in the first round. His season took a miserable turn after he sustained an injury at the Miami Masters in March. Even though he hasn’t won consecutive matches since then, this win must have injected some confidence into his deflated psyche and he’ll believe he can go on from here to put up a fight to remain in the top 20 come the end of the season.
Sebastian Ofner prefers the dirt and he showed with a brilliant run to fourth round at the French Open where he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas. However, he hasn’t done badly on hard courts either as he made it to the semifinal in Astana before a second-round loss to Tommy Paul. He looked a bit shaky in this first round win here in Tokyo over Christopher O’ Connell needing two tiebreakers to edge the Aussie in three sets. The Austrian could offer a challenge but this match is Aliassime’s to lose . If the Canadian can dish out his best tennis, he will win.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 3
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Tommy Paul vs Mackenzie McDonald
Head-to-head: Paul 2-0 McDonald
Tommy Paul is in a race to secure his place in the Turin Finals and the pressure seemed to get to him in his comeback win over Daniel Altmaier in the first round. Even though he’s been able to produce some exceptional results this season – not least a win over Carlos Alcaraz in Toronto – he hasn’t been at his best recently.
His compatriot Mackenzie Mcdonald had a slow start to his first-round match against Max Purcell but grew into the contest, eventually dispatching the Australian in straight sets. That win took his season’s win-loss record in opening-round matches to an excellent 15-1. He’s had a successful season and his win-loss record against top 20 players is a respectable 6-7.
Tommy Paul seems to be playing under pressure and he was quite lucky to face a player who isn’t really in love with hard courts in the first round. Don’t expect McDonald to be as forgiving.
Prediction: McDonald in 3
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Ben Shelton vs Jordan Thompson
Head-to-head: Shelton 1-0 Thompson
Ben Shelton will be hoping to finish his breakout season well. After a gut-wrenching loss in a third-set tiebreak last-time out in Shanghai, the American young gun bounced back in impressive style, rallying from a set down to deny Taro Daniel in front of the partisan Japanese crowd. Shelton will need to improve going forwards this week at the ATP Tokyo Open, but he has gears to go through.
Jordan Thompson, meanwhile, scored a superb victory over third seed Alexander Zverev, dismissing the German in straight sets to earn his third win of the Asian swing. But backing up it will be tough, as well as he played against Zverev. Thompson is a hard worker and has made the most his talents through a willingness to find different ways to beat opponents. But Shelton has the power to hit him off the court and Thompson’s weaker backhand is probably in danger of being exposed.
Prediction: Shelton in 2
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Marcos Giron vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-head: Ruud 1-0 Giron
Casper Ruud eventually got a win under his belt here in Tokyo after struggling past home hope Yosuke Watanuki. He has put in a strong performance in the Asian swing but he’s still an unpredictable player to back when you consider his shock loss to Fabian Marozsan last week in Shanghai. He’s 10-10 on hard courts this year and he’ll be looking to improve on that record.
Marcos Giron too overcame another home favourite Yoshihito Nishioka in the first round to take his opening-round matches during the Asian swing to an impressive 4-0. However, he hasn’t managed to go beyond the second round in all previous three events. The American looked very solid in his win over Nishioka blasting an impressive 13 aces past the Japanese. With Ruud not at his best, don’t be surprised if Giron is able to get the better of the French Open finalist.
Prediction: Giron in 3
