Third-round action concludes on Monday at the ATP Shanghai Masters. Though the season is drawing to a close, there is still plenty to play for in Shanghai, with the race to finish as world #1 in the spotlight. as always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match, including Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ugo Humbert, but who will come out on top?
ATP Shanghai Day 6 Predictions
Matteo Arnaldi vs J.J. Wolf
Head-to-head: Arnaldi 1-0 Wolf
With the limelight on his more established compatriots like Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti, 22-year-old Matteo Arnaldi has snuck under the radar. The man from Sanremo has been a revelation this year. His transition from Challenger-level player to ATP regular is now complete. He shot to fame at the US Open where he reached the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time. Arnaldi is on the doorstep of the world’s top 40 now.
Not long ago, J.J. Wolf was making similar moves on the ATP ladder, but he’s been without a main draw win since early August and has now exited the world’s top 50. His last defeat was coincidentally against the Italian this past week in Beijing. Although he did score an upset win over Cameron Norrie in the previous round, Wolf is likely to come second best again with Arnaldi playing a more polished brand of tennis.
Prediction: Arnaldi in 2
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Andrey Rublev vs Adrian Mannarino
Head-to-head: Rublev 2-1 Mannarino
Adrian Mannarino is playing some of the best tennis of his life at 35. With two titles in 2023 along with a series of eye-catching performances, the Frenchman has made light of his advancing years. But maybe accumulated fatigue might start to show off here. Andrey Rublev is not a player who inspires so much confidence with his current set of results. But he can inch closer to ATP Finals qualification this week and maybe that should be enough motivation to deliver in this match. But it wouldn’t be a shock if Mannarino turned back the clock again as he has done almost invariably this season.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
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Grigor Dimitrov vs Karen Khachanov
Head-to-head: Dimitrov 2-0 Khachanov
This pair have been in very good form at this year’s Asian swing, but Karen Khachanov was far from his free-flowing best in his opener. The Russian narrowly escaped the shackles of Kazakhstani qualifier Beibit Zhukayev, winning in three sets. He withstood a barrage of aces and winners from the inspired world #302, who served 20 aces in the match, but his second serve proved his downfall as Khachanov won a healthy number of return points.
Dimitrov faced little resistance in subduing Aleksandar Vukic in straight sets. Recent history suggests the Bulgarian will have a direct route to the round of 16 and Khachanov has struggled a fair bit in his last two matches, possibly from exhaustion after winning the title in Zhuhai. Advantage very much with Dimitrov here.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 3
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Dan Evans
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-0 Evans
Despite the lopsided head-to-head record, this isn’t a bad match for Dan Evans. He feeds off the pace as he can seamlessly absorb powerful groundstrokes with his dextrous backhand slice. Evans is also able to showcase his variety by closing down the net. He used his toolbox of shots to good effect at the US Open last month, stretching Alcaraz to four sets, but ultimately the Spaniard’s quality told.
A similar scenario could unfold here, with Evans pinning Alcaraz on the baseline with his defensive tactics and trying to hurt him when there is an opening. It is likely to work momentarily, as the Spnaird will eventually handle Evans’ disruptive game in two tight sets.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
