Jannik Sinner has just produced probably the best back-to-back performances of his career to win the China Open in Beijing, beating Carlos Alcaraz in the semfinal and Daniil Medvedev in the final without losing a set in either match. He played superbly against Alcaraz, breadsticking him (losing only a single game) in the second set, but if anything he played even better against Medvedev, to beat the Russian for the first time. One might even say that Sinner went from the sublime to the Jannikulous, demonstrating a resilience and versatility to his game that suggest he can become a genuine contender for the Majors in 2024.
Resilient Against Alcaraz
Against Alcaraz, Sinner showed his resilience, particularly in the first set, when the two young stars of men’s tennis traded breaks four times in succession after Alcaraz, starting brilliantly, had threatened to go 3-0 up. Sinner withstood the Alcaraz onslaught, which continued throughout the set, to reach a tiebreak, where he stunned the Spaniard by winning it 7-4. In the second set, it was as if Alcaraz remained stunned, as he surprisingly capitulated to lose it 6-1.
Sinner’s semifinal victory in Beijing gave him a 4-3 winning record against Alcaraz, putting him alongside Holger Rune, who is probably the third most gifted young male player to emerge since the end of the Djokovic-Nadal-Federer triopoly, as the only current player to have an overall winning record against the young Spaniard. Of course, Alcaraz retains the most important edge over his two close contemporaries because he has already won two Majors, but Sinner’s dominant performance in the Chinese capital was a welcome reminder that Novak Djokovic is not the only man who can consistently challenge him.
Versatile Against Medvedev
If anything, Sinner’s victory in the final against Medvedev was even more impressive than his win against Alcaraz, for the simple reason that he had never beaten the Russian before in six largely one-sided matches, including losing to him in two finals in 2023 in Rotterdam and Miami. However, Sinner made it a truly magnificent seventh match between them by comprehensively winning the two tiebreaks that they contested, winning each one 7-2.
If Sinner had shown incredible resilience to survive against Alcaraz in the first set of the semifinal, he showed great versatility against Medvedev to triumph in the final. Knowing that the Russian is not so much a baseliner as a behind-the-baseliner, he regularly came to the net, demonstrating not only superb volleying skills but also commendable patience as the odd Medvedev winner from far behind the baseline raced past him. In addition, he showed what could be called Medvedev-like scrambling to get to some of the Russian’s finest and most angled shots. And even if he could not break Medvedev’s serve during either set, in both tiebreaks he did so sufficiently to cruise to an ultimately comfortable victory.
The Best Tournament Win of Sinner’s Career So Far
Sinner’s victory in Beijing can rightly be regarded as the best tournament win of his career so far. Even though the China Open was only an ATP500 event, it may well have been the most competitive ATP500 event ever staged, as the ATP marked its return to China after four long, Covid-ravaged years by assembling a cast list that was only missing Novak Djokovic among the main players. Sinner may have won his first ATP Masters event in Montreal earlier this year, but to do so he had to beat Tommy Paul in the semifinal and Alex de Minaur in the final. The competition he faced in the last four and then the final in Beijing was far harder.
Beyond the win itself, it was the fact that Sinner backed up his performance in the last four in Beijing against Alcaraz with what in many ways was an even finer performance in the final against Medvedev, who previously had been his on-court bête noire, that will have delighted him. In the past, he has enjoyed spectacular wins but been unable to back them up in the next match, as was the case in Miami earlier this year when he beat an injury-affected Alcaraz in the semifinal but then lost fairly limply to Medvedev in the final.
Now For The Majors
This season is far from over. Sinner will be determined to reach the ATP Finals, in Turin in his native Italy, and having reached a career-high world ranking of #4 he is in a fantastic position to do so. And he will surely be eager to represent his country in the Davis Cup quarterfinal tie against the Netherlands in November, having had to withdraw from their qualifying matches in September because of fatigue after a long and arduous North American swing.
Nevertheless, Sinner will be looking forward to 2024 already and in particular the Australian Open, because the Majors are the final frontier for him to conquer. He has done well at Grand Slam tournaments before now, particularly at Wimbledon this year where he reached the last four, but has never really looked like winning one. Now, emboldened by his success in Beijing and in particular his back-to-back wins against Alcaraz and Medvedev, he will be hopeful that he can go one better in 2024 and at least reach a Major final.
In Melbourne, the major obstacle for Sinner will be the major obstacle for everyone else, namely Novak Djokovic, the defending champion who will be going for a remarkable 11th Australian Open title. The great Serb is, of course, a formidable opponent for anyone, but against Sinner he has a 3-0 head to head record. If Sinner is to seriously compete for a Major, especially in Australia, he will almost certainly have to beat Djokovic for the first time.
Can He Become The Third Italian Male Major-Winner?
If Sinner were to win a Major in 2024 or indeed at any point in his career, he would become only the third Italian man to do so, after the legendary Nicola Pietrangeli, who won the French Open in 1959 and 1960, and Adriano Panatta, who won at Roland Garros in 1976. That is a relatively pitiful record for a country that is as tennis-obsessed as Italy, but if anyone is going to improve upon it, it is surely Sinner.
There are other fine Italian players at the moment, notably Matteo Berrettini and Lorenzo Musetti. However, Berrettini is still trying to get back to his best after serious injury and Musetti, who broke through shortly after Sinner by reaching the French Open quarterfinal in 2021, is yet to show that he is consistently capable of the long and deep runs, especially at Major and Masters levels, that Sinner has already achieved.
One final cause for hope for Sinner is that between now and the 2024 Australian Open there will be the short but crucial tennis off-season. The young Italian has already proved himself particularly adept at making the most of an off-season by working on and even remodelling his game. That has been evident this year, most notably with his serve, which is vastly improved from last season. If he can make similarly significant improvements during the coming off-season, there is every chance that he can reproduce his Beijing brilliance at the Majors in 2024.
Main photo credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
