We have arrived at the quarterfinals of the final slam of the year. The 2023 US Open has brought terrific tennis to the world over the past nine days, and looks to continue to excite as we enter the championship rounds of the tournament. Day 10 features the final two men’s and two women’s quarterfinal matches. On the men’s side, we will see good friends Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev square off as well as No. 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz taking on Alexander Zverev. Contributing to these group roundtable predictions are Jack Edward, Yesh Ginsburg, Damian Kust, and Jordan Reynolds.
US Open Day 10 Men’s Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev
Jack:
A 5-2 head-to-head in favour of Daniil Medvedev here. No sets won for Andrey Rublev in their two hard-court Grand Slam meetings. There are glimmers of hope from the two matches Rublev has won but, over five sets and at Medvedev’s favourite Slam, it doesn’t feel particularly likely to happen again.
There are other match-ups in which I would have had more faith in Rublev making his first Grand Slam semifinal. The odds are stacked against him here, however, so I’ve got to back a ninth quarterfinal loss, even if there are moments of resistance from the world #8.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Yesh:
Rublev has never done well against his friend. Medvedev has had moments of mediocre play this tournament, but overall he’s been his usual solid self. That’s not good news for Rublev.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Damian:
This is a tough matchup for Rublev historically, and he trails the head-to-head 2-6 with two straight-set losses at the hard-court Slams. Medvedev’s defensive positioning is something he cannot really expose with his one-dimensional power hitting and lack of variety. He needs to come out of his comfort zone and so far hasn’t been able to do that against this opponent at the Slams. Expect Medvedev to make it a true slog and slowly take down his countryman physically.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Jordan:
It is hard not to root for Rublev here, who is seeking a first Grand Slam semifinal at the ninth attempt in a quarterfinal. But sadly I struggle to see it happening. Medvedev had looked somewhat below his best at the US Open this year until he played three excellent sets against Alex de Minaur. Rubiev’s natural game is very strong of course, but having variety such as coming to the net is crucial against Medvedev. That is something Rublev generally lacks, and why he usually struggles a lot against his good friend.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Jack:
Alexander Zverev claimed he was back after defeating Jannik Sinner in four hours and 41 minutes. A great win for sure, but Sinner has had his own problems in fifth sets. Let’s not get too carried away in the heat of the moment and remember Zverev’s record against top 10 players in Grand Slams—now two won out of 15 played.
Zverev’s underlying flaws have a tendency to eventually expose themselves over the long haul of best-of-five matches, and Alcaraz is probably the best-equipped player on tour to take advantage of that (bar Novak Djokovic). The match-up is kinder to Zverev than it is to most, but I still think Alcaraz will be the true benchmark of the German’s current level.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Yesh:
Zverev looked physically beat in his last match, and his overall game hasn’t been amazing way too much of the time. A player of his caliber can survive a weak set or two against most players. But Carlos Alcaraz isn’t most players.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Damian:
This could have a pretty interesting matchup, although probably not quite like the Sinner quarterfinal that Alcaraz had last year. Zverev is back, if not to his actual peak then at least to a peak-adjacent level. However, this battle in brutal conditions that he had with the Italian will likely have taken way too much out of him to have a proper shot at the upset. He leads the head-to-head 3-2, but these matches don’t seem all that relevant with the only hard court meetings coming back in 2021 when Alcaraz was 18.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Jordan:
On paper, this has the makings of an excellent contest. But I expect Alcaraz to win this more comfortably than many expect. Zverev put in a huge effort in his epic win against Sinner. That means I think he probably has to win this in straight sets. Coping with Alcaraz’s excellence after such a long match is the ultimate challenge. Also, we saw Zverev run out of steam in the semifinal of the French Open against Casper Ruud. My admiration for the German will be off the scale if he shocks the defending champion.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Main Photo Credit: Kareem Elgazzar – The Enquirer – USA TODAY NETWORK
