It should be an entertaining sixth day at the US Open with eight intriguing third-round matches on the schedule in New York. As always, we here at LWOT are offering our predictions for every match on the schedule, including Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegula. But who will book their spot in the second week?
US Open Day 5 Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Clara Burel
Jack: Aryna Sabalenka’s done well to settle into the tournament, especially after being tested by Jodie Burrage. Had Clara Burel been her first round, I would have predicted the Frenchwoman to battle her way to a third set but I think Sabalenka will have found the range required to stave off any threat.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Jordan: Burel won against a player with a pretty similar style to Sabalenka in the form of Karolína Plisokova. But obviously the #2 seed is a better player. The Frenchwoman has already had a great tournament. She will be overwhelmed here though.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Jim: It’s been a really good tournament for Burel. But the Frenchwoman has yet to come up against a player of Sabalenka’s quality. On these courts, if the Belarusian can maintain the level she displayed in the second round against Burrage, it’s hard to see Burel having the answers.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
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Marketa Vondrousova vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Jack: It’ll take a seriously big hitter to find a way through the high base level of Marketa Vondrousova… those huge hits could come from Ekaterina Alexandrova’s racket. The Russian serves and trades from the back of the court with so much might, she’s definitely one of the few players that could pose a threat to the Wimbledon champion. Still, I think the conditions will be hot enough for Vondrousova’s lefty spins to cause just enough disruption.
Prediction: Vondrousova in 3
Jordan: Vondrousova was very good in her first two rounds. But I am going for a slight upset here. Alexandrova plays best on hard courts, and it is the surface that she will be best able to hit her flat shots against the spin and variety of Vondrousova. The Wimbledon champion did beat her in Adelaide this year, but Alexandrova to win on an American hard court.
Prediction: Alexandrova in 3
Jim: At her very best, Alexandrova could probably win this match. But the Russian typically thrives on rhythm and Vondrousova excels at denying her opponents exactly that. Expect the Wimbledon champion to have the edge here.
Prediction: Vondrousova in 2
Madison Keys vs Liudmila Samsova
Jack: My heart’s telling me Liudmila Samsonova but my head is telling me Madison Keys. Whilst Samsonova’s forehand is particularly effective, Keys’ record on the courts of New York is incredibly strong. She seems like the safer bet to come out and actually execute her gargantuan game.
Prediction: Keys in 3
Jordan: This is a fascinating matchup between 17th seed Keys and 14th seed Samsonova. Conditions in New York this year suit Keys slightly more of the two. Samsonova’s big serve is not quite as effective with the heavier balls being used by the women this year. Keys to then be a little more consistent off the ground to make another fourth round at Flushing Meadows.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Jim: Again, Keys is a good enough player to win this match and there’s less between her and Samsonova than Vondrousova and Alexandrova. But Samsonova has power of her own and, crucially, is the steadier and more reliable player.
Prediction: Samsonova in 3
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Peyton Stearns vs Katie Boulter
Jack: There still hasn’t been anything from Katie Boulter that’s left me completely convinced in her game. Against top 40 players off of grass, she is currently 0-11. I would say top 40 is the kind of level Peyton Stearns is playing to after her first two matches.
Prediction: Stearns in 2
Jordan: I think the rise of Stearns is set to continue here. Boulter likes to play on the front foot when she can. However, I think she will eventually get overwhelmed by the strong and aggressive style of Stearns.
Prediction: Stearns in 2
Jim: Don’t dismiss Katie Boulter’s chances out of hand. After all she’s exceeded expectations by reaching the third round, and is also surely full confidence amindst the best stretch of her career. But then so is Stearns.
Prediction: Stearns in 3
Main photo credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
