While it seems Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic is all but set in most tennis fan’s minds as the US Open final, 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev should not be counted out as a serious contender. After dominating his first round match over Attila Balazs Tuesday, losing just two games, he showed he is in strong form and should not be counted out.
Current Form
Medvedev has had a bit of an odd year. It has been disappointing by his standards due to inconsistent results. However, he has two Masters 1000 titles and a career-best semifinal appearance at Wimbledon. He won his first ever Masters 1000 event on clay in Rome and had a great sunshine double with a final in Indian Wells and the title in Miami.
He does have several poor results at big events, bowing out in round three in both the Australian Open and his most recent event in Cincinnati, as well as a first round loss at the French Open. However, he has shown that when he is in good form, he can be the dangerous player that was a major winner and former world #1. His first round performance suggested he is locked in and ready to compete in New York.
Draw Analysis
Medvedev is one of four serious title contenders along with Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Jannik Sinner. Unfortunately he is in the tougher top half of the draw alongside Alcaraz and Sinner. That being said, Alcaraz and Sinner are set to meet in the quarterfinal and Medvedev should have an easy road to his quarter. There he would play countryman Andrey Rublev who he has a strong 5-2 record against.
The last two matches will be incredibly difficult. However, if Sinner can upset Alcaraz as he did in Miami, it will set up perfectly for Medvedev who has a 6-0 record against the Italian. Even if Alcaraz gets through, he and Sinner played an epic five set match lasting over five hours here last year. With the top half not having the extra rest day, a long match could give Medvedev the edge against a fatigued Alcaraz.
If he reaches the final, it will likely be a rematch of the 2021 final here against Djokovic that Medvedev won in straight sets. While that fear will be hard to replicate, Medvedev has a respectable 5-9 record against Djokovic with four of those wins on hard courts. Djokovic will still be the favorite on a hard court, but Medvedev has shown that he has the game to hang with him and can beat him in the final at this very event.
Will he Win?
Medvedev is still well outside of Alcaraz and Djokovic as the next potential winner. Sinner has gotten much more coverage than Medvedev even though he lacks the experience at this stage. Medvedev has the experience of being a former champ with wins over both Alcaraz and Djokovic. It is hard to see him currently as a serious contender because he is not quite at his peak 2021 form. He has been streaky this year and if he can find his top level this week he absolutely has a chance to hold the trophy. With a reasonable path to the semifinal, he can certainly make noise once he gets there. It will be a big surprise if he can capture the title, but tennis fans should keep a close eye on Medvedev’s matches as the #3 seed will somehow quietly eye a deep run in the event.
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
