The final Slam of the season is upon us as all the eyes in the tennis world have descended upon Flushing Meadows in Queens, New York, for the 2023 US Open. On the men’s side, World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and World No. 2 Novak Djokovic enter the draw on a collision course to play in their third final in as many months. Despite the natural urge to focus all our attention on the top seeds, nothing is more unpredictable than the first few rounds of a Grand Slam.
The ATP Tour has become incredibly talent-rich across the top 100. This sets up many intriguing early-round battles, lending themselves to unseeded players knocking out those who are seeded. There will undoubtedly be some unseeded players who cause chaos in the 2023 US Open men’s draw. Let’s look at five unseeded players that I believe will have an impressive performance at the US Open.
Five Unseeded Men Poised to Make Noise at the US Open
Sebastian Baez
Current Rank: No. 35
22-year-old Argentine Sebastian Baez enters the US Open in arguably the best form of anyone in the event. Baez is on a ten-match winning streak after back-to-back titles in Kitzbuhel and Winston-Salem. Through those ten matches, he picked up wins against four top-50 players, including a 6-3, 6-7, 7-6 semifinal win over Borna Coric on Friday. Coincidently enough, Baez and Coric will square off again in the first round of the US Open. This battle should be a very back-and-forth contest similar to their matchup in Winston-Salem. I do not think fatigue will be a factor for Baez, as the Argentine will have two off days before the match on Tuesday.
If Baez can get past Coric, the draw opens up nicely. He would get the winner of Kei Nishikori and Felipe Alves in Round 2 before a potential meeting against No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev in Round 3. That potential matchup would been an uphill battle for the young Argentine, but crazier things have happened. At that point, Baez will have won 12 matches in a row and will bring the required confidence to compete with the 2021 champ.
Matteo Berrettini
Current Rank: No. 36
Let’s take a look at Matteo Berrettini’s history at the US Open.
- 2019 – No. 24 seed, Semifinals
- 2020 – No. 6 seed, Fourth Round
- 2021 – No. 6 seed, Quarterfinals
- 2022 – No. 13 seed, Quarterfinals
As you can see, Berrettini has taken a liking to the courts of Flushing Meadows. He holds a 16-4 record over his last four US Open’s and will bring a rightful confidence to this year’s tournament. The only reason the Italian is not seeded is because of his lack of matches. The Italian suffered an oblique injury in early April at the Monte-Carlo Masters. He has played just 23 matches this season (11-12), but found some form at Wimbledon, reaching the fourth round. During the North American summer hardcourt swing, Berrettini was just 1-2, but his losses came against formidable foes in Jannik Sinner and Felix-Auger Aliassime. With every passing match, the Italian gains more confidence, and his US Open draw sets up perfectly for a deep run.
Berrettini gets his tournament started against No. 29 seed Ugo Humbert. Berrettini has not dropped a set against the Frenchman in their two ATP meetings. He bested Humbert on the courts of Flushing Meadows 6-4, 6-4, 7-6, back in 2020. If he can get past Humbert, Berrettini would welcome a very winnable match against the winner of Arthur Rinderknech and Diego Schwartzman. A Round 3 date with No. 8 seed Andrey Rublev could be in the cards, but the Italians’ confidence will only grow with every match.
Andy Murray
Current Rank: No. 37
The 2012 US Open Champion returns to Flushing Meadows for the 17th time with no signs of slowing down. Andy Murray, at age 36, holds his highest ranking since July 2017 when he was World No. 1. Despite just missing out on a seed, the current World No. 37 is a player to be feared in the US Open draw. Murray holds a 14-4 record since June and has shown incredible confidence on faster surfaces. The Brit had to pull out of Masters events in Toronto and Cincinnati earlier this month due to an abdominal injury but has not had any setbacks and is ready to compete.
Murray opens his 2023 US Open campaign on Tuesday against Corentin Moutet. It will be the first meeting between the two. Moutet is just 8-15 this year and has yet to beat a player inside the World Top 50. Murray should be able to frustrate Moutet and win many free points. A Round 2 matchup against the winner of No. 19 Grigor Dimitrov and Alex Molcan would be next. Assuming Dimitrov gets past Molcan, Murray must bring a high level to beat the Bulgarian. Murray knows Dimitrov well, holding an 8-3 record against him. If Murray is feeling fit, there is no reason he cannot win that match.
The draw does not get much easier, and Murray would be slotted to play No. 12 Zverev in Round 3 and No. 6 Sinner in Round 4. No, I do not think Andy Murray will win the 2023 US Open. That said, he will make some noise and can undoubtedly pull off an upset or two.
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Mackenzie McDonald
Current Rank: No. 40
United States men’s tennis has seen an incredible resurgence over the last few years. Although he might not be the first name that comes to mind, 28-year-old Mackenzie McDonald has been as steady as they come in 2023. McDonald enters the US Open with a career-best ranking of No. 40. The UCLA alum holds a 14-8 record since the start of the grass season. Over that span, he has beaten the likes of Holger Rune, Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, and Borna Coric. Earlier this month, McDonald reached the quarterfinals of the Canada Masters, arguably the best result of his career.
Unfortunately for McDonald, he drew a top 16 seed in Round 1 of the US Open. On the bright side, that seed is No. 15 Felix Auger-Aliassime, who has won just one match over the summer months. The 23-year-old Canadian has lost his confidence and form. He is currently ranked No. 15 in the world, his worst mark in two years. McDonald matches up well with Auger-Aliassime, holding a 1-1 record against him. FAA is only a slight favorite in this match.
Should McDonald get by Auger-Aliassime, the draw really opens up. A Round 2 match against the winner of Hugo Dellien and Borna Gojo would be next. He would then be slated to take on No. 20 Francisco Cerundolo before a potential Round of 16 match against Novak Djokovic awaits. The way I see it, McDonald should be the favorite to reach the Round of 16 from his section of the draw.
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Current Rank: No. 78
27-year-old Thanasi Kokkinakis is still searching for his singles breakthrough on a Grand Slam stage. He has not reached the second week of a Slam in 17 main draw appearances. That, however, could change this year in Flushing as the Aussie brings confidence and swagger to the US Open grounds.
Kokkinakis enters the 2023 US Open with a 33-20 record across all levels this season. He is three wins away from the winningest season of his career. Kokkinakis has always preferred faster surfaces, proving that by his play this year. He holds a 25-13 hardcourt record with ten wins over top-100-ranked players. He amassed five wins earlier this month in Toronto and Cincinnati and should be in full form for his Round 1 match on Monday.
The Aussie opens his US Open campaign against Qualifier Yu Hsiou Hsu. Kokkinakis enters that match as a heavy favorite. Should he get by Hsu, No. 16 Cameron Norrie likely awaits in Round 2. I like this matchup for Kokkinakis, as Norrie has yet to win a match since Wimbledon. Kokkinakis’s serve and first-strike tennis should treat him well in that potential matchup. Round 3 would be a matchup against whoever lasts out of the Griekspoor/Fils/Kubler/Arnaldi quad. I favor Kokkinakis against all four of those players, and he is my pick to reach the fourth round. That, unfortunately, will be where his tournament ends against No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
