The ATP Masters National Bank Open in Toronto has left fans witnessing countless upsets, alongside some fantastic matches. Some of the best matches have taken place under the night sky on Center Court, with stunning shot-making, and epic mental battles. All the action comes down to Sunday’s final, which features two players that many would not expect to be at this stage. Who will prevail on Sunday: Jannik Sinner or Alex De Minaur? A first Masters 1000 title is at stake, along with a massive bonus going into the US Open.
ATP Toronto Final Prediction
Jannik Sinner vs Alex se Minaur
Head-to-head: 4-0 Sinner
Jannik Sinner has taken advantage of a wide-open draw, but certainly deserves his spot on Sunday with the great tennis he’s played. He battled through a thrilling three-set quarterfinal against a rejuvenated Gael Monfils, unleashing countless forehands over 100 mph. Saturday brought out a consistent and solid performance from the Italian, as he took out giant killer Tommy Paul in the semifinals. Meanwhile, Alex de Minaur broke through a frustrating streak to make it here. De Minaur had never even made a quarterfinal of a Masters 1000, yet surpassed all expectations to reach the final after wins over players like Fritz, Medvedev, and Davidovich Fokina. De Minaur played a tactically sound match against Medvedev, counterpunching and strategizing exceptionally well. Against Davidovich Fokina, his defensive play got him through a slugfest in the wind.
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With all the upsets in Toronto, anything is possible on Sunday. However, given each player’s style of play, it’s impossible that de Minaur will be able to outhit Sinner on the offensive side. The Aussie will have to consistently hit deep to Sinner, forcing the Italian to play back and eventually make errors. Sinner can crack fast shots from anywhere, but it’ll be interesting to see whether de Minaur can run down balls and force mistakes. De Minaur’s hustle on the court is admirable and captivating to watch, and some crazy gets by the Aussie could potentially get him a load of crowd support. Sinner will have to keep playing offensive tennis, but his serve will be critical in this match. The Italian served only 46% first serves in against Paul, a number that has to improve. Second-serve opportunities will allow de Minaur to get into many rallies.
Ultimately, the head-to-head also plays a major role in this showdown, as Sinner has won all four meetings between the two. Even more demoralizing for the Aussie, Sinner won three of their four matches in straight sets. Their last meeting in 2022 Madrid summed up what a peaking Sinner can do, as he was able to blow De Minaur off the court 6-4 6-1. However, I do think de Minaur will make this a very close match, as he is battle-tested this week. The Aussie picked up two ATP Top 10 wins, and Sinner hasn’t had to play an opponent at a consistent elite caliber, other than a fatigued Tommy Paul. Sinner may struggle early on in this match with the pressure on his shoulders, but look for the Italian to grind out the win.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
