The Masters National Bank Open in Toronto, Canada, has provided patrons with terrific tennis all week. ATP Toronto is down to eight quarterfinalists who will battle it out this weekend for the title and 1000 ranking points. Quarterfinal Friday features incredible matchups, including World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz taking on American Tommy Paul. We at LWOT have the preview and prediction for that match and all other happenings around the grounds of Toronto. But who will advance to the semis?
ATP Toronto Quarterfinal Predictions
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mackenzie McDonald
Head-to-Head: Davidovich Fokina 1-0 McDonald
The winner of this Alejandro Davidovich Fokina/Mackenzie McDonald quarterfinal will reach their first career hardcourt Masters semifinal. McDonald has played terrific tennis over the last six weeks and is up to a career-high live ranking of World No. 43. This week, he has wins over Karatsev, Rublev, and Raonic without dropping a set. Davidovich Fokina came to Toronto amidst a 1-3 spell but has looked terrific this week in wins over Wolf, Zverev, and Ruud. Both men play solid offensive tennis, hugging the baseline and moving their opponent from side to side. This sets up to be a three-hour, three-setter, with the winner as the player who raises their level when it matters most. I give the slight edge to the American, who I believe has the current confidence to hold his form throughout the match.
Prediction: McDonald in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur
Head-to-Head: Medvedev 4-1 de Minaur
Daniil Medvedev has been on an absolute tear on hardcourts this season. The World No. 3 holds a 31-3 record on the surface, including a 26-1 mark since February. He has yet to drop a set over two matches in Toronto. Medvedev faces a tricky quarterfinal test against Alex de Minaur. The Aussie has already taken out No. 8 seed Taylor Fritz and No. 11 seed Cameron Norrie. He is back on his favorite surface, showing off his terrific movement and rally tolerance in Toronto. I believe Medvedev’s huge serve will be the difference in this match. De Minaur does not have the power to pierce the Russian from the baseline.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Jannik Sinner vs Gael Monfils
Head-to-Head: Sinner 3-1 Monfils
Young Italian Jannik Sinner takes on veteran Frenchman Gael Monfils in what should prove to be an incredibly entertaining battle. Monfils has finally re-found his footing on the ATP Tour over the last two weeks. He won back-to-back matches last week in DC for the first time since Aug. 2022. He is now in his first Masters quarterfinal since the 2021 Canadian Open. Sinner has reached seven Masters quarterfinals over that span. The 21-year-old Italian is one of the purest ball-strikers on tour. He is 22-5 on hardcourts this season and has the power to hit through his opponents and variety to hit around them. Monfils will push the Italian, but Sinner is too strong from the baseline.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz 1-1 Paul
Carlos Alcaraz continues to prove why he is the No. 1 player in the world. The 20-year-old Spaniard is 49-4 this year with a 12-1 mark on hardcourts. He overcame a set deficit to take down No. 15 seed Hubert Hurkacz in the Round of 16. His quarterfinal opponent is 26-year-old American Tommy Paul. Alcaraz and Paul have split their only two meetings, with the American getting the better of the Spaniard in a 6-7 7-6 6-3 battle at the 2022 Canadian Open. This match should provide the same entertainment as that battle. In the end, however, I see Alcaraz raising his level and using his clever drop shot to keep Paul off balance.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports
