The French Open is down to its final 16 players, entering the delightful stage when each match will either be a high-quality affair or contain a great story from week one. As always, we here at LWOT will preview and predict every match. Who do you think will break through to the quarterfinals?
French Open Day 8 Predictions
Daria Kasatkina vs Elina Svitolina
Damian Kust: The 6-0 head-to-head (in Svitolina’s favor) is quite mindblowing, but is it still relevant after a few years? Probably not, despite the Ukrainian’s title in Strasbourg last week. She could be getting close to running out of steam by now and Kasatkina has been absolutely spot-on in Paris this week so far.
Prediction: Kasatkina in 2
Jakub Bobro: Svitolina has put together a brilliant run here but after winning Strasbourg last week and another tough win over Anna Blinkova, how much does the Ukrainian have left? Kasatkina failed to win any of their previous six meetings, though just one was on clay. The World No. 9 has played at a very high level throughout the week and on current form, she has to be the favorite.
Prediction: Kasatkina in 3
Jack Edward: Daria Kasatkina may have been in a funk at the start of the year but she’s put that behind her and is now playing some of the steadiest tennis since her run at the 2022 French Open. Her last three wins, particularly against Marketa Vondrousova, have showcased an extremely high and repeatable level from her. Though Elina Svitolina plays with a similar consistency, these courts seem to suit Kasatkina’s brand of tennis to a tee.
Prediction: Kasatkina in 2
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Elise Mertens vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Damian: Nice return to form for both players, particularly Pavlyuchenkova who had been off the tour for a while. Mertens is the icon of consistency, but she doesn’t have the Russian’s upside. The 31-year-old made the final the last time she played this event and while she might not be ready to repeat that, I believe she should go at least a step further.
Prediction: Pavlyuchenkova in 3
Jakub: Pavlyuchenkova has shown her younger countrywomen that she still can’t be counted out, coming back from a set down against both Liudmila Samsonova and Anastasia Potapova, and already halving her ranking. Mertens broke through the mediocrity of the past few seasons, getting her best win since Madrid 2021 by beating Jessica Pegula 6-1 6-3. I expect an even match-up with Pavlyuchenkova narrowly edging the win.
Prediction: Pavlyuchenkova in 3
Jack: It’s hard to say who the favourite is here. Elise Mertens brought a decent level into her match with Jessica Pegula but that was more about the American than the Belgian. There is a small range between her peaks and troughs that could be surpassed by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova if she’s feeling it. Do we have any reason to believe the former finalist here will bring her best into this match? Her win over Anastasia Potapova cemented it for me.
Prediction: Pavlyuchenkova in 3
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Elina Avanesyan vs Karolina Muchova
Damian: Avanesyan managed to moonball Tauson to death, but can she do it to another underachiever who would have been much higher in the rankings if not for the injuries? Muchova has a lot more experience and a more varied skillset compared to the Dane. She’ll handle Avanesyan’s game better.
Prediction: Muchova in 2
Jakub: After taking out Belinda Bencic in her first match in 50 days and beating Leolie Jeanjean, lucky loser Avanesyan went one step further than expected and upset the much-fancied Clara Tauson 7-5 in the third. The 20-year-old secured a Top 100 debut and will now face another in-form player in Muchova. The Czech has taken out Maria Sakkari in two tiebreaks, got bageled by Nadia Podoroska in a three-set win, and dominated Irina-Camelia Begu 6-3 6-2. Muchova has been stellar for the most part and I believe her style of play should keep Avanesyan in check.
Prediction: Muchova in 2
Jack: The stars are aligning for another deep Grand Slam run for Karolina Muchova. She dismissed Maria Sakkari, Nadia Podoroska and Irina Camelia Begu in fine style. I would actually have expect Elina Avanesyan to be her easiest opponent on paper but sometimes getting through the main draw from qualifying can let you swing with reckless abandon. Muchova will probably meet some stern resistance but, with no injuries threatening as of yet, the Czech should find a way through.
Prediction: Muchova in 3
Aryna Sabalenka vs Sloane Stephens
Damian: Stephens is usually great at the French, but this will be a big test for her. She’s a superb counter-puncher and matches up well against Sabalenka on slow clay, at least in theory. The reality is that the Belarusian is so strong right now that she might end up overwhelming her anyway.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Jakub: The guaranteed match of the day! A hard-hitting Australian Open champion in the Roland Garros second week for the first time in Sabalenka up against a former finalist who has reached the second week in Paris nine times in her 12 appearances, Sloane Stephens. Sabalenka has been largely dominant through her easy first three rounds but Stephens will be a much bigger challenge. The American has lost their three previous meetings but all were on hard courts and she took sets off Sabalenka in each of them. Stephens is famously inconsistent but I believe she will step up to the plate here and get her best win since 2018.
Prediction: Stephens in 3
Jack: Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t been tested yet and I don’t think she’ll be tested here either. Sloane Stephens has brought some good form into this tournament but she can’t be counted on from match to match and hasn’t been able to raise her level to defeat a top five player since 2018. Sabalenka shouldn’t be too flustered.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
