The third round starts on Day 6 of the French Open, and we have an absolutely mouthwatering set of men’s matches scheduled. Will World #1 Carlos Alcaraz continue his march to a semifinal showdown with Novak Djokovic? Will we see upsets along the way? As always, our writers here at LWOT share our thoughts on the matches with you. We split Friday’s matches between this and a separate article. Predicting these matches are Jakub Bobro, Andreas Pelekis, and Jack Edward. Who do you think will win?
French Open Day 6 Men’s Predictions
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Diego Schwartzman
Jakub:
After weathering the storm against Jiri Vesely, Tsitsipas dealt with Roberto Carballes Baena in three sets. Schwartzman still being in this tournament is a bit of a shock despite his copious success in Paris over the years. The 30-year-old lost his last five going into Roland Garros and hadn’t strung two wins together since the US Open despite playing a full schedule, let alone going two sets to love down to Bernabe Zapata Miralles in his opener. Schwartzman has now won six straight sets but Tsitsipas will likely end the fairytale here.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
Andreas:
Schwartzman continues to impress this tournament, showing fans why he has one of the best return games on the globe. However, Tsitsipas looked much better in his second round match, and leads the head-to-head 4-2. The last time the two played at the 2022 Laver Cup, Tsitsipas only lost three games. The Greek should overpower Schwartzman, but it’s been a good run from the Argentine.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
Jack:
Diego Schwartzman’s done incredibly well to defeat Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Nuno Borges back-to-back. He is well known for being able to make Rafael Nadal squirm at the French capital—-but is he back to that scintillating form? I’m not calling the upset because Schwartzman isn’t an entirely sure thing but I think Tsitsipas will come through a tight struggle.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 4
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Hubert Hurkacz vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Jakub:
Hurkacz has battled through two massive five-setters against David Goffin and Tallon Griekspoor and now comes up against a solid clay courter in Varillas, who has come back from two sets to love down against both Shang Juncheng and Roberto Bautista Agut, though with significantly less time on court. I could see this one going the distance as well; Hurkacz has to be the favorite as long as his body holds up.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 5
Andreas:
Hurkacz won his opening two matches in five sets, something that won’t bode well for him in the second week of the tournament. The same can be said for Varillas, who’s come back from two sets to love down now twice. While Hurkacz is the favorite on paper, clay is never his best surface and Varillas is on a hot streak. Besides, the third round needs some upsets, and Varillas is playing with confidence and ferocity right now.
Prediction: Varillas in 5
Jack:
Will either player be feeling it in their legs yet? Juan Pablo Varillas has pulled off two consecutive comebacks from two sets to love down and Hubert Hurkacz has won two five-setters of his own. The Pole arguably needs his legs more than the Peruvian with his serve acting as the sole foundation to his clay court game. I think Pablo Varillas is capable of dominating from the baseline if Hurkacz’s serve is a touch off.
Prediction: Varillas in 4
Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego
Jakub:
Rublev got through his first two rounds against Laslo Djere and Corentin Moutet without too much trouble but he also hasn’t quite hit his stride. Sonego’s level has seemed better, taking care of business against Ben Shelton and Ugo Humbert. The Italian has beaten Rublev before at Rome 2021 and I have a feeling he could do it again here.
Prediction: Sonego in 5
Andreas:
Rublev battled through the tough Suzzane Lenglen crowd to beat Moutet in four, yet Sonego is another big step. The Italian impressed, discarding of the French #1 Humbert in straight sets. Rublev’s big game should get him through, but it could be a tough five setter.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Jack:
There’s absolutely no reason the upset isn’t a possibility here. Lorenzo Sonego took out Ugo Humbert in fantastic fashion and won’t shy away from meeting Andrey Rublev blow for blow. For all of Rublev’s on-court frustrations, however, he has won his last three five-setters and now has a Masters 1000 under his belt—he has the experience to take this if it goes the distance.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov
Jakub:
A much more interesting match-up now that Alcaraz dropped a set to Taro Daniel in his last match and Shapovalov got back-to-back wins for the first time since the Australian Open. The two have not faced each other before and the Canadian’s explosive game will be an interesting challenge for the top seed. Ultimately, I just don’t see Shapovalov sustaining a level that would be enough to oust Alcaraz here over the course of best of five sets.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Andreas:
Shapovalov’s picked up some good wins this tournament, but it’s a massive step up going from Arnaldi to Alcaraz in one match. Alcaraz dropped a set to Daniel, but easily cruised after that. The Spaniard should win in straight sets because he knows how to deal with inconsistent players, but it definitely could be closer.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Jack:
I wasn’t even expecting Denis Shapovalov to make it to the third round. Credit to the Canadian as he tamed his serve enough to get the job done against Arnaldi and Nakashima. Any loose ends will likely unravel against Carlos Alcaraz, however. A reliable return game would also be required to put the world #1 under pressure on this surface.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
