Ahead of the second Grand Slam of 2023, five Last Word on Tennis writers–-Vithun Illankovan (@VitIllankovan), Andreas Pelekis (@atp3417), Jack Edward, Damian Kust (@damiankust), and Glenys Furness–make their Roland Garros predictions for the Women’s Singles tournament. We also have a separate roundtable for the Men’s singles.
Women’s Champion
The player we think will win the Women’s Singles tournament
Vithun: (4) Elena Rybakina [KAZ]
The three stars of this WTA season so far have been Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Elena Rybakina. Swiatek comes into the tournament as the No.1 seed and defending champion with a 12-2 record on clay (including a title in Stuttgart). However, the women’s singles title at Roland Garros has not been successfully defended since 2007. In fact, the last successful Grand Slam singles title defence by a WTA player was by Serena Williams, all the way back in 2016 and no defending champion has gone past the quarter-finals since. Swiatek also has an unkind draw. She may have to beat the Czech (13) Barbora Krejcikova and the Kazakh (4) Elena Rybakina (to who she has lost her last two and three matches respectively) just to reach the final. Given these statistics and Swiatek’s draw, it seems the odds are not in the Pole’s favour.
Sabalenka comes into the French Open with a 9-2 record on clay this year including the title in Madrid. However, much of Sabalenka’s success on the surface has come in Stuttgart and Madrid, neither of which are ‘traditional’ clay courts. Therefore, I am still unconvinced with her ability to perform well at Roland Garros. In addition, Sabalenka is unlikely to be in the right headspace for a deep run given that she just won her first major title at the most recent Grand Slam event, the 2023 Australian Open. Given that she also reached the semi-finals at the 2022 US Open, she is due a pre-quarterfinal exit at this year’s Roland Garros. By process of elimination, I am going with Rybakina to win the women’s singles at Roland Garros this year. Rybakina has a 7-2 record on clay this year, including winning the title in Rome. Given that she doesn’t have the same omens against her like her rivals, the 2022 Wimbledon champion has a great opportunity to add to her Grand Slam tally.
Andreas: (4) Elena Rybakina [KAZ]
It’s hard to deny that Elena Rybakina has Swiatek’s number; the reigning Wimbledon champion has rather easily beaten Swiatek three times this year. With that, I’m backing Rybakina to win her second major this fortnight. Her quarter of the draw isn’t too difficult, with Ons Jabeur or Petra Kvitova as potential quarterfinalists. With Swiatek’s quarter of the draw looking chaotic, there could easily be many upsets that make Rybakina’s path even easier. Rybakina made her breakthrough at the French Open with her win over Serena Williams in 2021, and this tournament could witness another massive breakthrough for the Kazakh.
Jack: (1) Iga Świątek [POL]
No surprises here. Iga Swiatek retired against Elena Rybakina at the WTA 1000 event in Rome but this isn’t much of a worry. If she was willing to pull out of defending her title in the Italian capital for the second year running, this tells us she is being extremely cautious with her French Open preparation. Swiatek will do whatever it takes to be in the best form for arguably her favourite tournament—it will take a gargantuan effort to stop her.
Damian: (1) Iga Świątek [POL]
The only aspect of Iga Świątek’s draw that doesn’t exactly sound that amazing is Barbora Krejcikova in her fourth round. Is it enough to take the position of the favorite away from the Pole? Definitely not. Beating Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka in a row could be tough, but I kinda don’t like looking that many rounds ahead on the women’s side. In the best-of-three format, there’s really no guarantee that they’ll get there. Świątek seems more consistent in that regard.
Glenys: (4) Elena Rybakina [KAZ]
2022 Wimbledon Champion, the Kazakh has shown she can play on all surfaces. Although clay hasn’t been a good hunting ground previously, Rybakina has improved, and in Rome showed everyone she is serious. No reason she cannot go better than last year when she made the third round.
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Women’s Dark Horse
Which (other) player outside the Top 8 seeds will go furthest in the Women’s Singles?
Vithun: (17) Jelena Ostapenko [LAT]
The 2017 Roland Garros champion is starting to show some promise on clay again. She enters the tournament with a 6-3 record on clay including a run to the semi-finals in Rome, her first semi-final on clay since her sole major triumph. Given that she is in the weaker half of the draw, I have question marks over Sabalenka’s potential on the surface as I mentioned previously, I believe Ostapenko has what it takes to reach the final.
Andreas: (-) Sloane Stephens [USA]
A bold pick given her 8-10 record in WTA matches prior to Rabat, but Sloane Stephens always brings her best at the French Open. Stephens is currently riding some momentum at the WTA 250 in Rabat, and could very well go into Paris right off a title. She has a tough match against Karolina Pliskova in round 1 but leads her in the h2h 4-1, including beating her in straight sets at the 2021 French Open. A dangerous round-of-16 could be a showdown against Elena Sabalenka, yet Sabalenka could easily fall victim to a slump going into her first major since winning the Australian Open. Ultimately, Stephens could make a dangerous run, and could very well make the quarters or semifinals.
Jack: (-) Marketa Vondrousova [CZE]
A former French Open finalist might not sound like much of a dark horse but Marketa Vondrousova will 100% be under people’s radars. The Czech played her first tournament on slow clay for a year in Rome so didn’t go immensely far but she was beaten by eventual champion Elena Rybakina. Very few can counter her extremely tricky lefty game on this surface and she’s been given a fairly comfortable draw, opening with Alycia Parks, followed by a vulnerable Daria Kasatkina and eventually finding the mercurial Jelena Ostapenko. Don’t sleep on Vondrousova this fortnight.
Damian: (Q) Mirra Andreeva [RUS]
What a set of performances that was from the 16-year-old in the qualifying and especially against Camila Osorio in the final round, the quality was just extremely high. The Russian teenager looks like the real deal and has a way more mature game than some of the recent players her age we’ve seen on the tour. She’s got a good opener against Alison Riske and if she can hit through Anhelina Kalinina in the second round, then I think Coco Gauff could be very vulnerable against her more complete game in round three.
Glenys: (14) Beatriz Haddad Maia [BRA]
The Brazilian has never gone beyond the second round at Roland Garros, or any slam. But she is no stranger to the clay courts. Making the last eight in Rome is nothing to be sniffed at. Haddad Maia should at least make the second week.
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Women’s Early Exit
Which Top 8 seed will be eliminated earliest in the Women’s Singles?
Vithun: (3) Jessica Pegula [USA]
As is usual with the WTA, there are a lot of potential options for which top player we expect to crumble under the weight of pressure and responsibility. However, I am going with Jessica Pegula. Having reached the quarter-finals of the last two Grand Slams, she is due a pre-quarterfinal exit at Roland Garros. Her first-round opponent is fellow American, the unseeded (-) Danielle Collins who is a former quarter-finalist at Roland Garros. I think this match not only has upset alert over it but I also believe it could be the beginning of Pegula’s decline to mediocrity after a few years of overachieving.
Andreas: (6) Coco Gauff [USA]
After a good start to 2023, it’s been an inconsistent year for Cori Gauff as the American is defending big grand slam points for the first time in her career. Early losses in Madrid and Rome have exposed parts of her game that fall under pressure, and this tournament will be a learning year for her in how to face large amounts of pressure. I think Gauff will have a great second half of the year with less points to defend and should end the year in the top 5, but dangerous players like Anhelina Kalinna and Veronika Kudermetova have the game to take Gauff out before the quarterfinals this time around.
Jack: (6) Coco Gauff [USA]
Maria Sakkari is a close second but I’ve eventually settled on last year’s finalist, Coco Gauff. She has been extremely underwhelming lately, regardless of the conditions, with four consecutive second-round losses really highlighting her insecurity on the court. Rome’s finalist, Anhelina Kalinina, could take advantage in the third round or even a big hitter like Madison Keys or Veronika Kudermetova could be enough to unstick her in the fourth round. Tough times for the American.
Damian: (8) Maria Sakkari [GRE]
There’s an argument to be made that she probably got the toughest possible unseeded player in the draw (if you want to say that it’s Mirra Andreeva or Marketa Vondrousova though, I won’t disagree). Maria Sakkari did fine in Madrid and Rome, but Karolina Muchova (when healthy) is just that good. The Czech might even be the favorite in that match for me.
Glenys: (6) Coco Gauff [USA]
The American has not had the best lead into the French Open. Not going deep in any of the warm-up events in the singles, but doing better in the doubles. Last year’s finalist won’t repeat that feat and will drop ranking points. Gauff has struggled a bit on the clay in singles this year, Paris won’t be any different.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
