The third day of the ATP Lyon Open promises plenty of entertaining tennis with seven matches on the slate in central France and, with Roland Garros looming large on the horizon, there should be plenty of motivation for every player in action. As always at LWOT, we’re offering our predictions for every match on day seven, including Gael Monfils vs Pedro Cachin. But who will advance and who will fall to defeat?
ATP Lyon Day 4 Predictions
Sebastian Baez vs Marton Fucsovics
Head-to-head: first meeting
Sebastian Baez’s title in Cordoba at the start of the year was a sharp deviation from what has been the norm for the Argentine in 2023. That run was great but the rest of his season has been a steep uphill battle – he hasn’t been punishing in his return games as much as he is being punished in his own service games. He’s broken serve just five times in his last five losses, numbers that just won’t keep him afloat on this surface.
With Baez breaking so frequently, Marton Fucsovics is unquestionably a good enough player to take advantage. It may not be his preferred surface, but the Hungarian has a solid enough record on the clay winning the only title of his career so far on clay in Geneva in 2018 and reaching the fourth round in Paris two years later. Fucsovics can live in backhand duels for days and Baez, one suspects, is in trouble here.
Prediction: Fucsovics in 3
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Francisco Cerundolo vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Head-to-head: Cerundolo 3-1 Varillas
Francisco Cerundolo and Juan Pablo Varillas are players of a similar ilk. Both South American’s games centre around their incredibly potent forehands, relying on that shot even in the tensest moments. Where Cerundolo excels over Varillas is in striking first, putting his opponent frequently on the back foot with exceptional forehand returns. Varillas’s numbers aren’t great on second-serve and Cerundolo has plenty of reasons to be confident after defeating Jannik Sinner in Rome last week. He should have the edge at the ATP Lyon Open.
Prediction: Cerundolo in 2
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Tommy Paul vs Gregoire Barrere
Head-to-head: Barrere 2-0 Paul
Tommy Paul can assert his game on any surface. That said, he’s definitely better-suited to a faster hard courts–he can flatten out his shots nicely, his backhand in particular is guided rather than heavy and he transitions to the net on a faster surface with ease. Paul will be a little exposed, but he has more than one plan of attack and Gregoire Barrere probably isn’t the man for this particular job. The Frenchman is on the rise, but he’s not done anything to turn heads at this point in his career. Paul’s established top 25 game makes him the favourite here.
Prediction: Paul in 3
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Jack Draper vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Head-to-head: first meeting
This is a difficult match to call, at least on paper. Jack Draper’s game isn’t particularly suited to clay but he can make it work. His forehand may not be massive, but it’s a useful weapon and he hits it with with a lot spin, his serve can still win free points on any surface and he has top-50-worthy mental approach.
Miomir Kecmanovic will be a very difficult match-up, however. He’s very adept off both wings making him difficult to ensnare in the lefty forehand cross-court trap. He’s showed this in his two encounters this year on clay against left-handers, routing Jurij Rodionov 6-0 6-1 in Estoril and dismissing the explosive up-and-comer Abedallah Shelbayh, also in straight sets, in Banja Luka. With Draper also coming from injury, possibly a little early, Kecmanovic should be ready to pounce.
Prediction: Kecmanovic in 3
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
