The WTA final is set in Rome after a rainy day disrupted the second match but that was no problem for Elena Rybakina, who held on to win her semifinal convincingly. Anhelina Kalinina’s match was far less straightforward, but she pulled away in the final set after a close battle to reach just her second career final in a WTA Tour event. This final is certainly a surprise in regards to form, with the two finalists entering Rome with a combined 1-5 record on clay in 2023. They have each stepped up to the occasion and scored great wins over top players, so it will surely be a good, competitive final, with each looking to capture her first WTA 1000 title on clay.
WTA Rome Final Prediction
Anhelina Kalinina vs Elena Rybakina
Head-to-head: 1-0 Kalinina
Their lone prior meeting was last year in Charleston on clay. Kalinina won in three close set,s shortly before Rybakina’s ascendance to the top of the game. Kalinina plays her best tennis on clay and is a good mover who can hit with spin. Rybakina has had her biggest success on hard and grass courts with her big serve and powerful groundstrokes but she has adapted to clay incredibly well. She has had some success on clay with one title back in 2019 and made the French Open quarterfinals in 2021.
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Kalinina’s one previous final came in Budapest 2021 on clay and her career-best result was a quarterfinal in Madrid last year. Keeping her nerves in check will be crucial for Kalinina, playing her first match on a stage anywhere near this big, and against a player with nerves of steel who is quite familiar with these big moments.
Rybakina will not only have the experience advantage but should come in much fresher. Kalinina spent over six hours on court during her last two matches while Rybakina spent just under four and a half. Rybakina has looked very impressive in Rome, losing just one set all tournament–to world #1 Iga Swiatek. While she did benefit from Swiatek’s retirement in the third set, Rybakina battled back from down break point at 2-4 in the second set against easily the best clay court player in the world.
Kalinina has found a way to win against three consecutive seeds, but she has had to earn those wins going three sets in each of those matches, including the marathon three hour 41 minute victory over Beatriz Haddad Maia in the longest WTA match of the year. Rybakina’s power will be more of a weapon against a potentially tired Kalinina. Her big serve will help her hold regularly and Kalinina will tense up on some of the key points giving Rybakina chances to break. Kalinina has shown her fighting ability to it will not be easy but Rybakina will win again in 2023.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
