Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko will meet in the second semifinal at the WTA Italian Open in Rome. It is their second encounter of 2023 after Rybakina won the Australian Open quarterfinal match in straight sets. Who will prevail this time and reach the championship match in the Eternal City?
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WTA Rome Semifinal Prediction
Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko
Head-to-head: Ostapenko 2-1 Rybakina
Elena Rybakina’s comeback in the quarterfinal, albeit resulting in a retirement win, will trigger a serious moment of self-examination for Iga Swiatek. The Pole is now 0-3 against the Wimbledon champion in 2023. And at one point, she was a set and break up. But Rybakina spontaneously ate into Swiatek’s lead. She converted her first break points for 4-all in the second set before running away with the tiebreak. Ultimately, though, Swiatek hurt her thigh during the tail end of the tiebreak and lasted just four games into the third set before retiring.
Jelena Ostapenko, meanwhile, defeated former #2 Paula Badosa 6-2 4-6 6-3 in an hour and 47 minutes. She hammered a jaw-dropping 48 winners in the match, which was six times the number Badosa accumulated. The Latvian’s all-or-nothing style is highly rewarding when it clicks into place and she’s managed to win a three-setter for the third time this fortnight. After two quarterfinal appearances down the years, this is now Ostapenko’s best result at the Italian Open. Can she go all the way?
Rybakina has laid down an early maker that she is very much in the conversation of French Open contenders. How apt that for the third time this season she’s managed to survive the juggernaut that is Swiatek, who will now be sweating on her fitness heading to Paris. It is a fascinating battle in store against a power hitter very much in her mold.
Ostapenko is one of the WTA’s hyper-aggressive returners, winning 37.9% first-serve return points in 2023 (Rybakina 34.2%)–in fewer matches than the Kazakh. That figure grows to an impressive 56.5% on second-serve points. In the two weeks in Rome, Rybakina has faced 32 break points and broken nine times. Ostapenko, for her part, has faced 36 break points and broken 13 times. There is not a huge disparity in that regard. Ostapenko will certainly give a better account of herself here than in Melbourne where she won six games off the Kazakh, but is still likely to fall short.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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