ATP Rome Semifinal Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Daniil Medvedev ahead of ATP Monte Carlo

A once 96-man draw has dwindled to four semifinalists looking to raise the prestigious trophy in Rome. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia has treated its fans to many incredible matches, and semifinal Saturday should be no different. Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas have a well-documented rivalry that has produced some scintillating matches. Medvedev won their first five encounters, but Tsitsipas has won three of the last four. They have split their two meetings on clay. We at LWOT have the preview and prediction for this top-five showdown. But who will advance to the Rome final?

ATP Rome Semifinal Prediction

Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Head-to-Head: Medvedev 7-4 Tsitsipas

Daniil Medvedev has been playing phenomenal tennis in 2023. This season, he holds a 38-5 record with titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai, and Miami. The 27-year-old Russian is No. 1 in the ATP Live Race to Turin. Despite all his success, Medvedev has still yet to win an ATP title on the clay. He has reached just one clay-court final, a 2019 loss in Barcelona to Dominic Thiem. A win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in this match would be a tremendous accomplishment and a confidence booster ahead of Roland Garros.

It will undoubtedly be challenging for the Russian as Tsitsipas enters this match ranked fourth in the Live Race and is playing some terrific clay-court tennis. The 24-year-old Greek holds an 11-2 record on the surface this season. Tsitsipas was the runner-up in Rome last year and has been a semifinalist in three of the last five iterations of the event. He has yet to drop a set in four matches this week and looks in control every time he steps on the court.

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Ultimately this match will come down to the Tsitsipas serve versus the Medvedev return. Medvedev’s ability to stand ten feet behind the baseline and counterpunch his way to victories has been well-documented. Tsitsipas, who has served well this week, will need to take advantage of his opponent’s position on the court. Expect the Greek to play with a wide variation, incorporating serve-and-volleys and a high number of drop shots. I expect this match to be a tug-of-war battle, but give the slight edge to Medvedev due to his consistency from the baseline and ability to outlast his opponents. I believe this is the week the former world No. 1 wins his first ATP clay court title.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports