WTA Madrid Final Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka

Iga Swiatek ahead of WTA Indian Wells

The WTA Madrid final pits together the tournament’s top two seeds and seemingly the two best players in the world. Surprisingly, neither has won a WTA 1000 title so far in 2023 so there is plenty of hunger between the two of them. Sabalenka is comfortable in Madrid as the 2021 champion, while this is Swiatek’s first final in Spain, though she has won the Italian Open two years in a row. There should be plenty of fireworks and power on display in the final with a deserving champion to be crowned at the end. Who do you think will win?

WTA Madrid Final Prediction

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka

Head-to-head: 5-2 Swiatek

Swiatek has the overall head-to-head advantage in their previous matchups and that advantage is even more significant on clay where she has a 3-0 record and has won all six sets they have played on their surface. Swiatek’s dominance on clay has continued this year; the reigning French Open champion won all nine of her matches on clay, losing just two sets in the process. Sabalenka got off to an equally strong start but lost to Swiatek two weeks ago in the Stuttgart final. She has rebounded strong and has lost just one set here in Madrid. Both players are in top form and this should be a competitive, close match.

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Sabalenka’s power makes her dangerous on every point and her big serve is difficult to break. In their recent meeting in Stuttgart, it was Swiatek’s serve that made the difference in the match, holding all ten of her service games and facing just one break point. In Swiatek’s five matches, she has been broken just four times. Sabalenka will need a strong serving performance to stay in the match but has struggled so far in Madrid. She has been broken 11 times in her five matches giving Swiatek’s strong return a real chance to take advantage. Swiatek is nearly unbeatable on clay and the serving edge here in Madrid makes it look like the title is hers. Sabalenka has been playing some excellent tennis and will keep it close and if she can play aggressive with few errors will take a set, but Swiatek is just too good on clay.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane USAToday