The first of the two ATP semifinal matches is set in Madrid. This should be a high quality and high energy affair, with each player having a day off before the match. Coric will certainly benefit from the day off after a grueling three hour and 28 minute fight on Tuesday. Coric did not show any signs of fatigue in his win over Altmaier Wednesday so will surely come in fresh and free swinging as a large underdog. Alcaraz is looking to defend his title in Madrid after an incredible run last year, while Coric is playing in his first semifinal in any of the clay Masters 1000 events. The second semifinal will be set upon completion of Thursday’s matches.
ATP Madrid Semifinal Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz vs Borna Coric
Head-to-head: First meeting
The ATP Tour seemingly is becoming Carlos Alcaraz vs everyone else. Aided by Nadal and Djokovic missing time due to injuries, Alcaraz has stepped up and looked nearly unbeatable. He has won his last nine matches between Barcelona and Madrid, and has dropped just one set total in those matches. He has won the title in three of the five events he has played, and his two losses in 2023 have both been to top-15 players.
Coric’s run has certainly been a surprise with just a 9-8 record entering Madrid and riding a five match losing streak before the tournament. He has earned his way to the semifinal, beating #12 seed Hurkacz and #29 seed Davidovich Fokina on his way to the semis. Most of his prior success has been on hard, so the momentum on clay is a positive sign though he will have to find a new level against Alcaraz.
It is nearly impossible to pick against Alcaraz in any match, and this one is in his favor more than most. His movement, tactics, and shotmaking are dangerous on any surface but seem to shine brightest on the clay. He has been excellent on return with 14 breaks in four matches, seven of those coming against elite servers Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov. While, Coric has a good serve, it is not at the level as those two and Alcaraz was still able to tear them apart.
To win, Coric will have to try and play a similar game to Alcaraz and hang in with him at the baseline, hoping he will get overly aggressive with shots and make mistakes. Coric plays solid overall tennis but lacks that one standout weapon needed to beat a player at Alcaraz’s level. Coric has just one top-10 win on clay and it was back in 2017. Alcaraz is simply on another planet right now and he will cruise to victory by a large margin.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
