With seeds now in action, there is plenty of great ATP tennis in store on Day 5 in Madrid. Top seed Carlos Alcaraz headlines the day in what will surely excite the Spanish crowd as he takes on veteran Grigor Dimitrov. Another Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut faces off against Karen Khachanov. Fans will be thrilled to enjoy the Rune vs Davidovich Fokina match pitting together two of the most exciting players to watch on tour. A full day of tennis in Madrid has plenty of exciting matches, all of which are previewed here at Last Word on Tennis. We also have the rest of the day’s action in a separate article.
ATP Madrid Day 5 Predictions
Karen Khachanov vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Head-to-head: 6-2 Bautista Agut
These two are very familiar with each other playing their ninth match. While Bautista Agut has a significant edge, Khachanov won both their prior matches played on clay. Khachanov has had a great year with semifinals in both the Australian Open and Miami Open. Agut has been up and down and comes into Madrid with just a 3-3 record on clay. Agut is a physical player but at age-35 cannot play the long physical matches that were his former trademark. Khachanov will use his big shots to make Bautista Agut run and his serve with neutralize a good return of the Spaniard to swing the match in his favor.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
Daniel Altmaier vs Yannick Hanfmann
Head-to-head: 2-0 Hanfmann
Two qualifiers are looking to make the most of their opportunity in Madrid. Hanfmann has turned a corner as a strong clay court player this year. He has played most of the year on clay and Madrid is the fourth event he has qualified for. Hanfmann made the most of two of those prior chances with a quarterfinal in Santiago and semifinal in Houston. Altmaier is in decent form, making the final at the Sarasota Challenger but is not at the level of Hanfmann. Hanfmann is coming off a huge win over Lorenzo Musetti and a strong serve plus good movement giving him the consistency to control the match over Altmaier.
Prediction: Hanfmann in 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Holger Rune
Head-to-head: first meeting
There will be plenty of firepower in this match between two of the young future stars of the game. Rune has been excellent on clay in 2023, losing a tight Monte Carlo final then winning the title last week in Munich. Davidovich Fokina struggled in his first two events on the clay but had a good run to the third round in Barcelona. Davidovich Fokina hits hard for a small player and does well forcing his opponents into mistakes. Rune will be a challenging matchup for him because of his ability to run down balls and his shotmaking will frustrate Fokina. Games will be close and hard fought but Rune will take it in straights.
Prediction: Rune in 2
Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: 1-0 Alcaraz
These days it is nearly impossible to pick against Alcaraz, especially on clay. He owns an incredible 22-2 record on the year so far and has won the title in two of the three clay court events he has competed in. Dimitrov is a strong player but clay has never been his strength. He is 3-1 on the clay this year though he had to withdraw from Barcelona due to an illness. Overall the matchup is heavily in Alcaraz’s favor. Dimitrov relies on strong groundstrokes to win baseline rallies which plays into Alcaraz’s strength. Alcaraz is younger and can outlast Dimitrov on long points, and Dimitrov does not have that tricky weapon to throw Alcaraz off his game on clay.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
