All Round of 16 matches are set to take place at the ATP Barcelona Open on Day 4. There have been surprisingly few upsets to this point in the event, with 15 of the 16 seeded players advancing to the third round. 2021 finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas will look for another good run in Barcelona, while players such as Cameron Norrie and Karen Khachanov look to continue to play well on clay though they are not traditional specialists. Casper Ruud looks to turn his season around, and players who love the clay including Francisco Cerundolo and Lorenzo Musetti will look to pull off upsets on their favorite surface. The remaining draw is full of talent in what should be an exciting day in Barcelona, with all matches previewed here at Last Word on Tennis.
ATP Barcelona Day 4 Predictions
Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-head: 1-1
Cerundolo comes in with more comfort on clay this year, after playing the South American swing while Ruud did not for the first time in his career. However, Cerundolo did not have the success he would have hoped there and while he scored a big win over Cameron Norrie last week, he did not manage to go deep in the event. Ruud has had a poor start to 2023 compared to last year. He plays a similar game to Cerundolo but can hit harder and with more control on his groundstrokes so he should have the advantage. He has lost many disappointing matches of late but won the title in Estoril and looked good in round one against Ben Shelton. Cerundolo is a strong player and will give Ruud plenty of trouble, but Ruud’s experience and skills on clay give him the slightest edge to win a close match.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Cameron Norrie vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head: first meeting
At first glance, it seems like momentum is all on Musetti’s side. He is coming off a quarterfinal in Monte Carlo highlighted by a win over world #1 Novak Djokovic. Norrie came into Barcelona struggling on a three match losing streak, though he was able to snap it with his first round win. Though Musetti certainly seemed to find something in Monte Carlo, he was just 2-7 on the year coming into the event and 2-4 on clay. While Norrie has been on a bit of a skid, he was excellent in South America, making consecutive finals in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro, splitting the two with Carlos Alcaraz. While Norrie has had a couple tough losses, he looked great in his first match against Pavel Kotov who can be a tricky opponent and his talent is strong on clay. Musetti will likely have a bit of fatigue after his first tournament following a deep run this year, which will play into Norrie’s strong shotmaking abilities. Norrie is also great on clay and will get back to his winning ways.
Predictions: Norrie in 3
Daniel Evans vs Karen Khachanov
Head-to-head: 3-0 Evans
Though Evans has the significant edge in their prior matches, each player’s form is completely flipped with Khachanov playing excellent tennis in 2023 while Evans has struggled to win matches. Evnas had lost six matches in a row before winning two in Marrakech on clay, though he was provided with a fortunate draw. Khachanov has been strong on hard as expected but had an impressive run in Monte Carlo, crushing last yea’s finalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-2 6-2 before eventually losing out to eventual champion Andrey Rublev. His big serve can be a weapon on clay especially utilizing the bounce off a kick serve, which will be key against a good returner like Evans. Evans will not have the power to keep up with Khachanov, who is locked in and will have control over the match from start to finish.
Prediction: Khachanov in 2
Denis Shapovalov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Head-to-head: 2-1 Shapovalov
Both players are looking to improve on early losses in Monte Carlo, each losing to Taylor Fritz in consecutive rounds. While Shapovalov leads the head to head, Tsitsipas took their lone meeting on clay in straight sets. Shapovalov has always struggled with inconsistency, but it seems to be even more prevalent this year. He has posted just a 6-7 record in 2023 and has yet to make it out of the second round of any event since the Australian Open. He will hope to better his luck on clay, though while he is comfortable on the surface it has never been his best. Tsitsipas has had a much better season but will also look to build momentum. He has historically played his best tennis on clay, and while the loss to Fritz was disappointing, he is one of the favorites to win here in Barcelona. He will be able to utilize a big forehand and have time on his backhand to reduce his errors and force them on Shapovalov in what will be a straightforward win for Tsitsipas.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 2
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
