Next week, ATP Monte Carlo, the first Masters 1000 clay court tournament of 2023 will begin without 11-time champion Rafael Nadal. This sets the stage for an explosive tournament with many players having a chance to emerge victorious. All eyes immediately turn to Carlos Alcaraz and the returning Novak Djokovic who had to sit out the ‘Sunshine Double’ in Indian Wells and Miami due to his ongoing covid restrictions. Alcaraz will look to wrestle back his place at the top of the ATP rankings from Djokovic who is a former two-time champion here.
However, both men fell to shock defeats in round 2 last year which will give the rest of the field some great confidence going into this year’s edition. Below we list five players who could upset the top two seeds and go on to lift the title.
1. Stefanos Tsitsipas
It would be foolish to rule out the 2022 & 2021 champion despite his indifferent start to the 2023 season. The Greek star started the year in blistering form going 4/4 in the United Cup before reaching the Australian Open final. He played exceptionally well Down Under but his form since has been poor. In February, he struggled in the Davis Cup against two players ranked outside the world’s top 500 despite taking both matches in straight sets. Since then he has won just two matches. A return to his favourite surface and being a double defending champion should give him a lot of motivation though and the field will be wary. It is worth noting that he has publicly spoken of niggling shoulder injury since the Australian Open but if he has managed to shake that off and is fully fit, he will be a huge threat.
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2. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
There is a lot to admire about Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and it feels like he is due a breakout win. Sitting at his career-high ranking of 24 it is somewhat surprising that he is still trophyless on the ATP tour. In fact, he has only ever appeared in one final on the tour, and that came here 12 months ago when he was beaten in the final by Tsitsipas. That run to the final included wins over Fritz, Goffin, Dimitrov, and Djokovic and his 2023 form suggests he could go deep again. He looks like having a really good chance of lifting the title this week in Estoril and if he does he could carry that form into a tournament he clearly enjoys.
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3. Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev holds 12 career titles but none bigger than at the 500 series level. The powerful Russian shotmaker did reach the final here in 2021 beating Casper Ruud and famously Rafael Nadal on the way and certainly stakes a claim for going one better this year. His clay form in 2022 will also be encouraging to him with a title in Belgrade (beat Djokovic in the final) and a French Open quarterfinal appearance. There is no question about his ability but it can often be his mental strength that lets him down. If he can keep the latter strong he has a chance.
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4. Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev’s comeback from injury has not been ideal but there have been some encouraging signs. The German number one had Rafael Nadal on the ropes at Roland Garros last year before his excruciating injury that kept him out for the rest of the 2022 season. Clay is actually Zverev’s best surface statistically with a 66% win ratio on the dirt. He is a former Rome and Madrid Masters champion and cannot be ruled out even this early into his comeback.
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5. Nicolas Jarry
The wildcard of the picks here but it can certainly be justified. The reigning Santiago champion has had a blistering start to 2023 and has played a lot more clay matches than the majority of the draw in Monte Carlo. His defeat to Carlos Alcaraz in Rio showed signs that he can hang with best on the tour and he will go into this weekend’s qualifying tournament full of confidence. Currently ranked 59, the Chilean will have to battle through two matches just to make the draw but the extra game time may give him an edge.
And that’s the lineup of five underdogs who could potentially upset the top two seeds and emerge as champions in Monte Carlo. What are your thoughts on our picks? Do you believe there’s someone else in the draw who could pull off an upset? Feel free to share your opinion in the comment section below.
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
