Houston–
After rain allowed for just one set to be completed all of Wednesday, a busy Thursday is on tap at ATP Houston with all singles second-round matches scheduled along with all of the doubles quarterfinals. Many Americans will be in action in a tournament that has treated Americans well in the past. After two days of tennis, it seems quite possible an American will be holding the trophy at the end of the week.
As the clay court season begins with the lone clay-court event held in the USA, many Americans are fighting to hold the trophy in Houston. Americans have had success in past events, winning six of the last ten titles. American Reilly Opelka is the defending champion, though he is unable to defend his title due to an injury. Each of the top five seeded players are American, including John Isner, the 2013 champion for his lone career clay court title, who was last year’s runner-up as well. However, the tournament’s #3 seed Brandon Nakashima withdrew Tuesday with an injury, opening the door for other players with the talented young American unable to play. Many of the Americans in the draw look to gain momentum as the season shifts to clay, a surface Americans are traditionally weaker on.
Current Favorites
Though former champion Jack Sock lost his first-round match Tuesday, two other former American champions will be in action Thursday in Isner and Steve Johnson. Johnson has been out of form but has historically played well in Houston. He plays arguably the favorite to win the event Frances Tiafoe, the top seed looking for his second career singles title and first on clay. J.J. Wolf had a strong breakout at the Australian Open and is full of talent, but he has yet to make a final in a clay event. Houston has had some surprise winners in the past so do not count Wolf out, though he is less likely than Isner or Tiafoe. With a lack of serious firepower in the rest of his half of the draw, Tiafoe should have the edge to make the final and compete for the title.
Just two Americans remain in the second round in the bottom half of the draw. Both are seeded in Tommy Paul and Marcos Giron. Paul is the #2 seed and at world #19, is much higher-ranked than Isner, the next strongest player. Paul is talented and can play physical tennis, though that has not fully translated to clay yet. He will likely be able to learn the clay as his career progresses but he is currently a far better hardcourt player. Above him Marcos Giron is the #7 seed and similar to Paul, heavily favors the hard courts. Giron is smaller and plays from the baseline but has struggled with having enough power to win points on a slower court. Giron is in good form and could surprise people with a strong result. Paul will have to go through Giron or Tomas Machac who has been playing excellent tennis lately and has a real chance to upset both Americans en route to the semifinals.
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Other Contenders
With Paul and Giron not providing much firepower on clay, Tomas Etcheverry’s quarter could produce the finalist or event champion. Etcheverry played a great first-round match and will be poised to win his second round against the winner of the one match yet to be completed against a player who will have to play twice in one day. Etcheverry looked strong in his first-round match and has a great path to the final. Another dangerous player in that quarter is 2019 ATP Houston winner Cristian Garin. Garin has fallen off a bit since 2019 but is strong on clay and faces Lucky Loser Zizou Bergs who replaced Brandon Nakashima in the draw. While Americans make up most of the top-ranked players, Garin and Etcheverry are clay court specialists whose ability on the surface will give them the ability to beat anyone in the draw.
Total Outlook
With Americans featured heavily in the top half of the draw, it seems likely that at the very least an American player will compete for the title. Tiafoe is likely the favorite due to his skill level, though many players more comfortable on clay could pull off the upset. While it may be more likely than not that Tiafoe does not win, it is hard to pinpoint which player will stand in his way. The tournament is certainly up in the error, with there being just above a 50/50 chance of an American being victorious at the end of the week. With more rain on the way, there will be a lot of matches in a short amount of time, setting the stage for excitement and potential upsets.
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
