It’s the fourth day at the ATP tournament in Marrakech. There are plenty of exciting match-ups as early as the round of 16 with Botic Van De Zandschulp and Lorenzo Musetti looking to find some form against Christopher O’Connell and Hugo Gaston, respectively. As always at LWOT, we’ve tried to predict the outcomes of these early rounds.
ATP Marrakech Day 4 Predictions
Alexandre Muller vs Francesco Passaro
Head-to-head: Passaro 1-0 Muller
If you’re going to excel on clay, you either need some exceptional weaponry or the endurance (and accompanying rally temperament) of a marathon runner. Alexandre Muller just about has the tools to keep himself afloat on a hard-court but his game is less suited to this surface.
Francesco Passaro fits that mould more so than the Frenchman. He has plenty of variety to keep himself alive on defence and his shots should outweigh Muller’s in these conditions. There’s not a massive gap between the two players but we’re giving the edge to Passaro.
Prediction: Passaro in 3
Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Christopher O’Connell
Head-to-head: O’Connell 1-0 Van De Zandschulp
Signs of Botic Van De Zandschulp’s injury from Indian Wells seem to have disappeared. Wins over (an albeit under-par) Casper Ruud and Alexei Popyrin in Miami put that to rest along with a decent performance against Emil Ruusuvuori. Nonetheless, he’s looked less confident than last year at times on the court.
Christopher O’Connell’s recent form isn’t particularly inspiring but he’s played the majority of the last 52 weeks on hard-courts. The Aussie’s heavy one-hander makes him far more of a threat on a clay-court–whilst Van De Zandschulp’s forehand is heavy enough itself to tide him by on the surface, he loses some zip from his otherwise effective first-serve. The change in surface makes this one very close, so much so that we’ll back the underdog by a whisker.
Prediction: O’Connell in 3.
Pavel Kotov vs Benjamin Bonzi
Head-to-head: First Tour-level meeting
Benjamin Bonzi often goes under the radar. His talent is undeniable, he’s just a little too short to be a serve-bot and he’s nothing groundbreaking off the return. Still, the level he brings to the court can be exceptionally tough to live for non-ATP players — he’s won 28 of his last 33 matches against players ranked outside the Top 100.
Though Pavel Kotov is close to breaking that ranking barrier, he’s on the outskirts of the game’s elite for a reason. It may be anybody’s point during rally but it’ll be far easier for the languid Frenchman to roll on serve.
Prediction: Bonzi in 2
Lorenzo Musetti vs Hugo Gaston
Head-to-head: 1-1
Hugo Gaston is playing some of his best tennis for a while, stringing together wins against Federico Delbonis and Jan-Lennard Struff, whilst Lorenzo Musetti is getting close to his worst run of form since he joined the tour.
Let’s assume form makes them about even in terms of base-level going into the match. Match-up-wise, Gaston’s drop-shot won’t be the most effective–Musetti’s one-hander is heavy and difficult to execute off of plus the Italian’s touch will give him the option of feeling his way out of a tricky situation in the forecourt. Gaston’s serve won’t give him many opportunities to exploit the Musetti backhand return either. It’ll probably be close but this looks like a good opportunity for Musetti to notch a quality win against a quality opponent.
Prediction: Musetti in 3.
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
