Talk about a day’s play in Miami. Lucky fans at the Hard Rock Stadium will get the chance to see a first meeting between Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune, a revenge match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul and a bludgeoning affair between Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev. The round of 16 is dripping with quality–can we successfully predict the outcomes of these tantalizing matches in the top half of the draw?
ATP Miami Day 7 Predictions
Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Emil Ruusuvuori
Head-to-head: 1-1
Probably the lowest profile match of the day still promises to be an interesting one. Both players can be a little up and down, the convoluted serve of Botic Van De Zandschulp prone to breaking down and the soaring highs of Emil Ruusuvuori met with the odd low.
The ceiling of the Finn however is a sight to behold. There is so much potential for him to go far in this game–it’s a question of whether or not he’s ready for the next step. This is the best chance he’s had so far in his career to go deep at a big tournament. We think he’s got what it takes to take that opportunity by the scruff of the neck.
Prediction: Ruusuvuori in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-head: Paul 1-0 Alcaraz
This is about the best match-up fans could have asked for against Carlos Alcaraz at this stage of the tournament. Tommy Paul punished Alcaraz’s second-serve fantastically well in Canada, he net rushed the Spaniard better than anybody else and his forehand actually held up well to draw unforced errors where others hadn’t been as patient. Paul has something different in his arsenal and that’s about the only hope in hell any player has of defeating the world #1 at the moment.
Even still, in that Canada match Alcaraz held a match point. The forehand was loose but he’s lessening those errors with each passing week, adding patience to his game to go offensive on the correct balls. Alcaraz has grown since their previous meeting–some tactics will still work against him but there’s still a fairly vast chasm in power between the two players. We’ve got to go with the odds.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Taylor Fritz vs Holger Rune
Head-to-head: First meeting
This is an extremely enticing match-up between Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune. With no history to go on, we need to look at how the two player’s games match-up.
Fritz is always in with a chance against any opponent. His booming serve carries him in any conditions and he has explosive groundstrokes, even off the backhand wing where he can generate some offence.
It’s not a consistent weapon however and Rune will be more than willing to exploit that in a cross-court backhand exchange if Fritz shows any weakness. Other tactical plays of Rune’s might also work–drop shots could draw Fritz uncomfortably forward and Rune is able to close down the net very competently if he needs another means of finishing the point.
Honestly though, the conditions in Miami mean it could easily be won and lost from both player’s first-serves and Rune isn’t playing quite as mercilessly as he did in Paris (on serve and mid-rally) so we’ll back the American in three.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev
Head-to-head: 2-2
Hold on to your hats, spectators. This is the fifth meeting between the two huge hitters and they’ve split the head-to-head down the middle. Interestingly though, it’s hard to rate the two wins for Andrey Rublev given they both came from Jannik Sinner mid-match retirements.
Sinner’s wins were more telling of how this rivalry might go in the future. Though Rublev’s first-serve is a little better, the Russian tends to lose the backhand cross-court exchanges and his extremely powerful forehand can be absorbed very soundly off both of the Italian’s wings. To boot, there seems to be a bit of an edge lost to Rublev’s game recently too.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
