Some of our matches on Day 4 of ATP play at the Miami Open may look like they include gross ranking disparities but this could be difficult for some of our seeded players. We’ve tried to predict some of them at LWOT including Alex De Minaur’s match against Frenchman Quentin Halys, and Matteo Berrettini’s battle against Nadal’s conqueror at the Australian Open, Mackenzie McDonald.
ATP Miami Day 4 Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-0 Carballes Baena
The improvements to Roberto Carballes Baena’s serve have gone a bit under the radar. Though he’s finding the court a little less as he takes on more risk with it, when it does land, he’s statistically winning more points with it than he used to…
When he’s not playing a fantastic returner that is. Daniil Medvedev’s return position should nullify this improvement from the start and off the ground, in these conditions, he also wins the majority of the points from the baseline. No trouble here for the man with all the momentum.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Matteo Berrettini vs Mackenzie McDonald
Head-to-head: Berrettini 2-0 McDonald
Let’s break down Matteo Berrettini’s career win-rate. Berrettini has a decent 65% win-rate on the ATP Tour, about two in every three matches.
- On clay, this increases to 69%, far closer to those in the top 10.
- It skyrockets to 85% on grass, more than four out of every five matches played.
- His win-rate on hard-courts sits at a lowly 57%, about three wins for every two losses.
His performance on non-natural surfaces has been extremely mediocre because of that backhand deficiency. Against a player that can excel from the baseline, this match becomes about 50/50 at best. Mackenzie McDonald is 11-3 against players ranked outside the Top 30 this year which sounds about right for Berrettini’s level on this surface at the moment.
Prediction: McDonald in 3
Alex De Minaur vs Quentin Halys
Head-to-head: Halys 1-0 De Minaur (all levels)
Underrated or under-equipped for the ATP Tour? Quentin Halys would surely think the former after reaching the semifinals of an insane draw at the Challenger in Phoenix last week, defeating #58 and #65 respectively ranked Emil Ruusuvuori and Gregoire Barrere in the first two rounds.
This isn’t a great match-up, however. Halys would prefer to be playing someone a little more serve-oriented as he can absolutely take care of proceedings off his own delivery. Unfortunately, Alex De Minaur is an elite returner who will demand an extremely polished performance of the Frenchman. Halys is playing well enough to be in with a shot but the safe bet would be to back two or three untidy service games from him ultimately making the difference.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
Cameron Norrie vs Gregoire Barrere
It’s been nothing but quality from Cam Norrie this season. Three finals, a Masters quarterfinal, a respectable five-set loss to Jiri Lehecka in the Australian Open round of 16–the wins have kept on coming as Norrie has delivered one of the most reliable games on the tour. He rarely veers from his base level as his shots are so safe and repeatable yet significantly effective.
It takes a great backhand to defeat the lefty and we’re doubtful Gregoire Barrere has got what it takes. This should be another scalp to add to Norrie’s 21-4 record this year.
Prediction: Norrie in 2
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports